Keep in mind that a lot of pundits and analysts have said this is the weakest economic recovery in the postwar period, which is true. But the weakest part of the recovery has been the role of government spending, and this election is going to change that. It would have changed with the Democratic candidate; it’s probably going to change even more with the Republican candidate.
If you listened to Donald Trump, he has focused on five things—I call it the Trump five—over the last 12 to 18 months. It’s cutting taxes. It’s changing trade deals or agreements with many of our partners around the world, or creating fair ones. It’s taking away a lot of the regulations that’s been imposed for the last five, eight years. It’s focusing on promoting more energy in the United States and it’s also in immigration.
If you have a system that promotes growth through cutting taxes, promoting freer trade or better trade deals for America, and also a system that allows people to enter the country legally, I think that’s a very strong pro-growth agenda.
Donald Trump’s message on trade has been a concern for mine and many others for some time. He has talked about raising barriers to trade, and it’s totally against the Republican party platform. I would tell you that the 12-person economic team that he has is made up of business people, bankers and also economists are proponents of free trade. So the advice he will be getting as he becomes president is that you may want to renegotiate trade deals rather than cancel them. And I think he has to listen to the experts on his team, whether it’s on the military side, the economic side, the regulatory side. I think his success or failure will depend on how he follows the advice of his team.
The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams.