May 14, 2019 Where Next? Our Post-Recovery Outlook for Emerging-Market Debt by Shamaila Khan Emerging-market bonds got off to a strong start after a difficult 2018. Are more gains possible? We think so, and volatility sparked by increased trade tension may provide a buying opportunity for selective investors. Emerging Markets, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 14, 2019 Postcard from… India by Jia Zhang India’s financial sector can be as chaotic as a Mumbai street market. But when I recently visited India and looked beyond the noisy headlines, I felt excited about the attractive investment opportunities that were created by the liquidity crisis which started last September. Emerging Markets, Equities Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 08, 2019 The Three Risks Bond Investors Should Be Watching by Douglas J. Peebles Risk assets have bounced back this year after a dreadful finish in 2018, with a big assist from the US central bank. But are markets overlooking the potential for problems down the road? Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 08, 2019 Unicorns and Growth: From Sales Stories to Profit Fantasies by Frank Caruso, Vincent Dupont, John Fogarty Technology unicorns are in the spotlight, with Uber’s high-profile IPO expected this week. As scrutiny of their business models intensifies, we think investors should also ask tough questions about publicly-traded companies with high sales growth but scant cash flows. Equities Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 07, 2019 Beat the Warning Lights: Managing Risk in European Equities by Tawhid Ali, Andrew Birse Investors often ask how it’s possible to allocate capital to European stocks given the political risks that abound. We think the answer is to combine disciplined stock picking with risk-management tools that look for unintended threats to a portfolio. Brexit, Equities, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 06, 2019 Are Your Munis Stuck in a Pre-2008 World? by Daryl Clements The financial industry and the muni market has lulled a generation of muni investors into using only one approach: buy and hold to maturity. That was fine in the past, but everything’s changed post-2008 and it’s time for a better muni strategy. Active & Passive , Fixed Income, Municipals Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 30, 2019 The Case of the Missing Inflation…and What the Fed’s Doing About It by Eric Winograd US inflation has been running low for some time, and key members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) are pointing a finger at the traditional policy framework. So rate hikes are on hold for the time being—and monetary policy is under the microscope. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 30, 2019 Watch Out for Volatility, Even in Rising Markets by Kent Hargis, Sammy Suzuki, Chris Marx Global stocks rebounded in the first quarter, but the ride was rocky. Even in a rising market, volatility is a clear and present danger. With so many risks clouding the outlook, we believe that investors should focus on generating a smoother pattern of returns. Equities, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 29, 2019 Looking to De-Risk? High Yield Can Help by Gershon Distenfeld, Will Smith The S&P 500 Index hit an all-time high on April 23, thanks to improving investor optimism. But for some equity investors, market highs signal a good time to reduce downside risk. Shifting a modest allocation into US high yield is an efficient way of doing just that—significantly lowering overall risk while only modestly curbing potential returns. Asset Allocation, Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 23, 2019 Misreading the Signs: Is Yield-Curve Inversion a False Alarm? by Sharat Kotikalpudi The US yield curve dipped into inverted territory recently. But that’s not necessarily a bad omen for equities. There are several important warning signals—and lately the yield curve’s slope is the only one flashing red. Multi-Asset, Rising Rates Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
April 22, 2019 Climate-Proofing an Equity Portfolio by James T. Tierney, Jr., David Tsoupros From rising sea levels to catastrophic weather events, investors can’t afford to ignore the risks of climate change. Since many companies would be vulnerable if current climate forecasts materialize, asset managers may want to consider climate change in their equity research process and engage management teams on the subject. Equities, Responsible Investing/ESG Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 17, 2019 The Late, Late Cycle: Preparing for a World of Lower Returns by Richard Brink, Walt Czaicki These are tricky days for the global economy. As growth downshifts and corporate earnings weaken, some investors are dusting off playbooks for late-cycle investing. That makes sense, but there are a few twists to today’s market conditions that may require new responses. Active & Passive , Economics, Equities, Inflation, Later in the Cycle Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 16, 2019 Debt, Downgrades and Fallen Angels: Keeping Risks in Perspective by Matthew Sheridan, Matthew Minnetian, Gershon Distenfeld The market has grown less anxious about an imminent wave of bond downgrades. That’s good, because overestimating the risk can lead to missed opportunities. But the risk hasn’t disappeared, making research as important as ever. Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 16, 2019 Is Inversion Panic Justified? by Scott Krauthamer In recent weeks, the US yield curve has been making investors nervous again. The curve has inverted before each of the last seven recessions, and it did so again on March 22. But what does an inversion really mean for equity returns? Equities, Rising Rates, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 16, 2019 Postcard from...China by John Lin Last October, we travelled to Wuhu in the eastern Anhui province, about 350 kilometers from Shanghai. When we woke up and looked out the hotel window, the thick gray smog that covered the city provided a potent reminder of one of China's most vexing problems: air pollution. Equities, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 11, 2019 Brexit Extension: It’s Progress, but Not as We Know It by Darren Williams The European Union has given Britain seven more months to sort out its exit plans. While the chaos of a disorderly Brexit has been averted for now, we think the compromise could have some unintended consequences. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks