August 17, 2018 How Contagious Is Turkey? by Morgan Harting, Christian DiClementi The Turkish lira has dropped 35% as of August 16, putting pressure on inflation as well as the country’s debt-heavy corporations and banks. Investor jitters have spread over the past week to some other emerging markets and European banks with Turkish exposure, but we don’t expect contagion to expand much further from here. Currency, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income, Multi-Asset, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 15, 2018 Will Chinese Renminbi Destabilize Markets as Trade Wars Escalate? by Mo Ji The trade war between Washington and Beijing has tipped China’s currency onto a path of destabilization. If hostilities escalate, China may let its renminbi (RMB) fall further. For investors, that could mean more volatility and tighter financial conditions. Currency, Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 14, 2018 Inverted US Yield Curve? Recession? Not So Fast by Eric Winograd Many investors have started to scrutinize the shape of the US Treasury yield curve, worried that a potential yield-curve inversion would mean imminent recession. In our view, things aren’t that simple. Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 14, 2018 Under Siege: How Trade Wars Affect the World’s Major Automakers by Douglas J. Peebles, Robert Schwartz From steel to engines to whole cars, tariffs are shifting the playing field for automakers. Our credit analysis suggests there are no winners in this war: consumers should expect higher sticker prices, companies lower earnings and investors more volatility. Economics, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 08, 2018 EM Stocks in the Time of Trade Tantrums by Stuart Rae Trade war’s becoming a bigger source of concern amongst investors, particularly in emerging markets, because a lot of those economies are very trade dependent. But there’s a difference between the first-order effects, the categories that are actually under trade restriction or trade tariffs now, and what might be happening in future. Emerging Markets, Equities, Trade Wars Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
July 31, 2018 Should Equity Investors Lose Sleep Over the Yield Curve? by Kurt Feuerman A single line chart is keeping an awful lot of investors up at night: the US Treasury yield curve. It’s been flattening steadily since the end of 2016 and is nearly the flattest it’s been since 2007. We all remember what happened after that. Equities Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 25, 2018 US Stocks: The Price Isn’t Right by Frank Caruso There are lots of price-insensitive equity investors today competing for performance. And that’s pushed many strategies to disregard the underlying business as they pursue short-term stock returns. We think it’s important to focus on fundamental research and know the businesses you invest in. Equities Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 24, 2018 Debt Hangover Looms After US Borrowing Binge by Scott Krauthamer, Walt Czaicki US companies, lured by historically low interest rates, have taken on massive amounts of debt in recent years. As rates begin to rise, investors should beware of companies that might be vulnerable to increasing financing costs. Equities, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 23, 2018 An Open Letter to European CEOs: Work with Us, Not Against Us by Sharon Fay, Tawhid Ali, Andrew Birse European companies often see engaged equity investors as the enemy. But there’s a new breed of activist investors who aren’t aggressive and share the same long-term interests as management. Let’s work together toward the best outcome for all stakeholders. Equities, Responsible Investing/ESG Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 20, 2018 Midyear Outlook: What a Trade War Could Mean for the Bond Markets, and More by Douglas J. Peebles We answer some of today’s most pressing investor questions—from the effect of trade wars with China to our expectations for rising rates and a correction in high yield. Fixed Income, Rising Rates, Trade Wars, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 18, 2018 Think Small in a Trade War? Yes, but Think Carefully, Too by Bruce Aronow, James MacGregor, Samantha S. Lau, Shri Singhvi As trade tensions escalate, investors are flocking to stocks of smaller US companies, which rely less on foreign sales than their large-cap peers. But in some industries, tariffs could affect smaller companies in unexpected ways. Active & Passive , Equities, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 17, 2018 Can the US Economy Weather the Trade Wars? by Eric Winograd Aluminum. Cars. Solar panels. It’s hard to track the tariffs without a scorecard. As headlines continue to swirl, many investors worry about the impact on the US economy. Clearly, tariffs and trade wars hurt growth, but we don’t think the impact will be big enough to derail the economy just yet. Economics, Policy & Regulation, Trade Wars Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
July 17, 2018 Not Dead Yet: What Many Investors Get Wrong About the American Mall by Brian Phillips Headlines about the death of the American shopping mall have become so common that the phrase “retail apocalypse” has its own Wikipedia page. But this is a death wrongly foretold—and that creates investment opportunities. Fixed Income Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
July 11, 2018 Is All-Passive Really the Best Thing for Target-Date Funds? by Christopher Nikolich With market returns expected to be lower going forward, target-date funds that invest in passively managed underlying components are at risk of underdelivering. We think diversifying beyond traditional asset classes and tapping alpha opportunities with a multi-manager structure can increase the chances of success. Active & Passive , Multi-Asset, Target-Date Solutions Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
July 11, 2018 Are US Companies Investing Enough for the Future? by Frank Caruso, Chris Kotowicz Corporate investments are the cornerstone of future growth. Yet shareholders are often seduced by buybacks and dividends. Equity investors should always make sure companies strike the right balance between deploying cash flows for short-term shareholder rewards and strategic reinvestment. Equities Likes 2 SHARE Bookmarks
July 10, 2018 Bonds Minus Duration: A Train Wreck in the Making? by Gershon Distenfeld A bond allocation is like a railroad. Credit is the locomotive that generates high returns, duration the track that keeps the train in line. Take the track away and you risk running your portfolio into the ditch. That’s why duration-hedged credit strategies are dangerous. Fixed Income, Rising Rates Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks