April 23, 2019 Misreading the Signs: Is Yield-Curve Inversion a False Alarm? by Sharat Kotikalpudi The US yield curve dipped into inverted territory recently. But that’s not necessarily a bad omen for equities. There are several important warning signals—and lately the yield curve’s slope is the only one flashing red. Multi-Asset, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 22, 2019 Climate-Proofing an Equity Portfolio by James T. Tierney, Jr., David Tsoupros From rising sea levels to catastrophic weather events, investors can’t afford to ignore the risks of climate change. Since many companies would be vulnerable if current climate forecasts materialize, asset managers may want to consider climate change in their equity research process and engage management teams on the subject. Equities, Responsible Investing/ESG Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 17, 2019 The Late, Late Cycle: Preparing for a World of Lower Returns by Richard Brink, Walt Czaicki These are tricky days for the global economy. As growth downshifts and corporate earnings weaken, some investors are dusting off playbooks for late-cycle investing. That makes sense, but there are a few twists to today’s market conditions that may require new responses. Active & Passive , Economics, Equities, Inflation, Later in the Cycle Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 16, 2019 Debt, Downgrades and Fallen Angels: Keeping Risks in Perspective by Matthew Sheridan, Matthew Minnetian, Gershon Distenfeld The market has grown less anxious about an imminent wave of bond downgrades. That’s good, because overestimating the risk can lead to missed opportunities. But the risk hasn’t disappeared, making research as important as ever. Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 16, 2019 Is Inversion Panic Justified? by Scott Krauthamer In recent weeks, the US yield curve has been making investors nervous again. The curve has inverted before each of the last seven recessions, and it did so again on March 22. But what does an inversion really mean for equity returns? Equities, Rising Rates, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 12, 2019 Watch Out for Volatility, Even in Rising Markets by Kent Hargis, Sammy Suzuki, Chris Marx Global stocks rebounded in the first quarter, but the ride was rocky. Even in a rising market, volatility is a clear and present danger. With so many risks clouding the outlook, we believe that investors should focus on generating a smoother pattern of returns. Equities, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 11, 2019 Brexit Extension: It’s Progress, but Not as We Know It by Darren Williams The European Union has given Britain seven more months to sort out its exit plans. While the chaos of a disorderly Brexit has been averted for now, we think the compromise could have some unintended consequences. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 10, 2019 Equity Investing When Turbocharged Growth Is Gone by Mark Phelps In today’s low-growth, low interest-rate environment, investors should be patient, and look for opportunities to use volatility to get into desirable investments at the price you’re willing to pay. Equities, Later in the Cycle, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 08, 2019 Back Where We Started? Equities Rebound but Risks Remain by Sharon Fay Global equities rebounded sharply in the first quarter from the sell-off in late 2018. But conditions remain shaky and caution is warranted. Investors should pay close attention to policy-related risks when considering their allocations. Equities, Later in the Cycle Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 02, 2019 Emerging Markets: Don’t Be Spooked by Bleak Headlines by Morgan Harting Signs of a recovery in emerging markets early this year have given way to worries about China’s economic slowdown and sluggish growth in Europe and Japan. But beyond the negative headlines we think many risks that weighed on the market last year have faded and the earnings outlook is relatively strong. Fixed Income, Multi-Asset Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 27, 2019 Inflation and Pricing Power by James T. Tierney, Jr. Many US companies have forgotten how to raise prices because they haven’t had to for a long time. In some sectors, such as retail, pricing power has been hobbled by the giant consolidated retailers, leaving other businesses unable to adequately offset inflationary pressures. Equities, Inflation, Later in the Cycle Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 26, 2019 Is the Fed Done with Rate Hikes This Year…and Next? by Eric Winograd Last week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) surprised even those who expected a dovish outcome. As the Fed wrangles with its policy framework, one takeaway is clear: don’t expect rate hikes this year—and possibly next. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Later in the Cycle, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 26, 2019 Three Reasons Why It’s Time for a Barbell Strategy by Matthew Sheridan As economic cycles enter their later stages, investors sometimes find that they’re taking too much risk to generate income. There’s a strategy that can help—and we think now is the time to use it. Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 25, 2019 Beyond the Brexit Trees, Is There Light in the EU Wood? by John Taylor Now that the UK has avoided (at least for now) a hard Brexit as it negotiates to extend Article 50, investors might reasonably wonder whether they can relax for a moment and take stock of the bigger picture. What sort of longer-term future does the European Union (EU) have, irrespective of the UK? Brexit, Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 18, 2019 Looking Forward, Looking Back: 10 Charts After 10 Years Just over a decade ago, global markets began to recover from the biggest shock in postwar history. These 10 charts show both how much has changed since then and how post-crisis market conditions may influence the next decade. Active & Passive , Equities, Fixed Income, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 18, 2019 Brexit: Is the Show that Never Ends About to Enter Another Act? by Darren Williams Nearly three years after the UK voted to leave the European Union (EU), the deadline for Brexit is less than two weeks away and the British government is asking for more time. While it’s easy to be distracted by the ongoing chaos in Parliament, it’s important to maintain a steady focus on the underlying parameters of the debate and the range of possible outcomes. These have shifted less than might be imagined. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks