December 05, 2018 The US Yield Curve Inverted. Time to Worry? by Erin Bigley, Scott Krauthamer What drove down US stocks this week? The answer may be the US bond market and what the shape of the yield curve is—or isn’t—telling us about the state of the economy. Equities, Fixed Income, Rising Rates, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 13, 2018 Market Sell-Off Shows Risk Is a Moving Target by Kent Hargis, Sammy Suzuki, Chris Marx Recent volatility reminds us that new risks are testing standard defensive equity strategies. Portfolios that offer downside protection need to go beyond standard risk models and position themselves for changing challenges ranging from trade wars to European political instability. Equities, Trade Wars, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 12, 2018 Will Energy Bonds Hold Up in a Volatile Oil Market? by Will Smith, Gershon Distenfeld A dramatic fall in oil prices, followed by a sell-off in high-yield energy bonds—is it time to worry about oil and gas companies again? Quite the contrary. The North American issuers that make up most of the world’s high-yield energy market are in a better position today than they have been in years. Asset Allocation, Fixed Income, Volatility Likes 2 SHARE Bookmarks
October 25, 2018 Looking Beyond the Equity Market Sell-Off by Eric Sprow, Scott Krauthamer The intensifying global equity sell-off this week has rattled many investors. More turbulence can be expected in the short term, but the recent volatility isn’t particularly extreme in historical perspective, and long-term market fundamentals still look solid. Equities, Volatility Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
September 26, 2018 What the US Midterm Elections Mean for Policy and the Markets by Scott Krauthamer Will Democrats retake the House of Representatives in the US midterm elections this fall? Will it matter for your investment portfolio if they do? Probably not so much, although a Democratic sweep of both houses could be more disruptive. Equities, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
September 24, 2018 How to Manage Volatility If volatility unnerves you, think about strategic approaches to building investment strategies that can keep you on course when turbulence strikes. Equities, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 30, 2018 How Contagious Is Turkey? by Morgan Harting, Christian DiClementi The Turkish lira has dropped 38% as of August 28, putting pressure on inflation as well as the country’s debt-heavy corporations and banks. Investor jitters have spread over the past week to some other emerging markets and European banks with Turkish exposure, but we don’t expect contagion to expand much further from here. Currency, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income, Multi-Asset, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 27, 2018 Imbalance of Trade: What Trade Wars Mean for Market Stability by Douglas J. Peebles Reduced global trade may have the unintended consequence of strengthening the US dollar, raising interest rates and pushing down stock prices. Together with tighter Federal Reserve policy, these developments may increase market turbulence. Currency, Fixed Income, Trade Wars, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 21, 2018 Reading the Signs: Investment-Grade Bonds Present Warning and Opportunity by Gershon Distenfeld US investment-grade corporate bonds look cheaper today than their lower-quality counterparts in the high-yield market. Is this the buying opportunity of a lifetime? Not exactly. A closer look reveals there’s actually method to the madness. Fixed Income, Rising Rates, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 20, 2018 Midyear Outlook: What a Trade War Could Mean for the Bond Markets, and More by Douglas J. Peebles We answer some of today’s most pressing investor questions—from the effect of trade wars with China to our expectations for rising rates and a correction in high yield. Fixed Income, Rising Rates, Trade Wars, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 03, 2018 Emerging-Market Debt: Expect Volatility—and Opportunity by Shamaila Khan, Christian DiClementi Summer is just beginning, but emerging-market (EM) bonds and currencies have been on a roller-coaster ride for months now. In markets, though, volatility breeds opportunity—and we still see plenty of that among EM issuers. Emerging Markets, Fixed Income, Volatility Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
June 15, 2018 Emerging Markets: Diminishing Risks vs. Headline Fears by Laurent Saltiel, Sergey Davalchenko, Naveen Jayasundaram Fears of new threats to emerging markets have cooled stock returns after two years of hot performance. But the concerns may be overstated. The long-term risk profile of emerging markets is continuing to improve. Emerging Markets, Equities, Rising Rates, Volatility Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
June 04, 2018 Can Emerging Markets Defy a Stronger Dollar? by Morgan Harting Turkey’s currency crisis has spooked emerging-market (EM) investors, especially amid growing concern about the strengthening US dollar. We think countries and companies in the developing world are actually much more resilient to a stronger dollar than in the past. Currency, Emerging Markets, Equities, Fixed Income, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks