June 10, 2019 Hard Landing for China’s Growth? Six Factors to Watch by Mo Ji, Shamaila Khan Will China’s economy suffer a hard landing? That’s been a concern voiced by investors almost every year for the past 10 years. But now, with China’s incredible increase in debt and leverage (not to mention escalating trade wars), the possibility of a hard landing would have critical implications for all global markets. Economics, Emerging Markets, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 06, 2019 Trade Wars Likely to Change the Fed’s Interest-Rate Game Plan by Eric Winograd The trade war has taken a harsher turn, threatening to further dampen economic growth. We expect the Fed to respond with sizable rate cuts, but the timing and amounts are more speculative than normal. Why? Economic data haven’t yet taken a major downward turn, and there’s uncertainty over how the Fed will react. Economics, Fixed Income, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 28, 2019 China and US: Tug of Trade War by Mo Ji, Shamaila Khan The latest spike in trade tensions between the US and China raises the stakes for the G20 meeting in late June. It also has some investors questioning how China will manage growth as well as fiscal and monetary policy to keep stability through these uncertain times. Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income, Trade Wars, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 22, 2019 Emerging Markets: Widen Your Lens Beyond Trade Tensions by Morgan Harting The beauty of EM investing is you can find opportunities in stocks or bonds beyond the narrow focus of headlines. Emerging Markets, Trade Wars, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 27, 2018 Beyond the Sugar Rush: Strategic Stimulus for Chinese Stocks by John Lin, Stuart Rae Whenever the Chinese economy slows and its stocks take a serious hit, investors have come to expect the government to unleash large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus. Another heaping spoonful of sugar may do more harm than good this time around, however. It’s time for the ailing market to take some medicine. Emerging Markets, Equities, Policy & Regulation, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 13, 2018 Market Sell-Off Shows Risk Is a Moving Target by Kent Hargis, Sammy Suzuki, Chris Marx Recent volatility reminds us that new risks are testing standard defensive equity strategies. Portfolios that offer downside protection need to go beyond standard risk models and position themselves for changing challenges ranging from trade wars to European political instability. Equities, Trade Wars, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
October 02, 2018 NAFTA 2.0: A Bold New Beginning? Or a Modest Rewrite? by Eric Winograd The revised NAFTA deal relieves uncertainty for Canada and avoids a possible Mexican barrier to ratification. But what does it really mean for the three countries involved—or for trade tension with China? Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 27, 2018 Imbalance of Trade: What Trade Wars Mean for Market Stability by Douglas J. Peebles Reduced global trade may have the unintended consequence of strengthening the US dollar, raising interest rates and pushing down stock prices. Together with tighter Federal Reserve policy, these developments may increase market turbulence. Currency, Fixed Income, Trade Wars, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 15, 2018 Will Chinese Renminbi Destabilize Markets as Trade Wars Escalate? by Mo Ji The trade war between Washington and Beijing has tipped China’s currency onto a path of destabilization. If hostilities escalate, China may let its renminbi (RMB) fall further. For investors, that could mean more volatility and tighter financial conditions. Currency, Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 14, 2018 Under Siege: How Trade Wars Affect the World’s Major Automakers by Douglas J. Peebles, Robert Schwartz From steel to engines to whole cars, tariffs are shifting the playing field for automakers. Our credit analysis suggests there are no winners in this war: consumers should expect higher sticker prices, companies lower earnings and investors more volatility. Economics, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 08, 2018 EM Stocks in the Time of Trade Tantrums by Stuart Rae Trade war’s becoming a bigger source of concern amongst investors, particularly in emerging markets, because a lot of those economies are very trade dependent. But there’s a difference between the first-order effects, the categories that are actually under trade restriction or trade tariffs now, and what might be happening in future. Emerging Markets, Equities, Trade Wars Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
July 20, 2018 Midyear Outlook: What a Trade War Could Mean for the Bond Markets, and More by Douglas J. Peebles We answer some of today’s most pressing investor questions—from the effect of trade wars with China to our expectations for rising rates and a correction in high yield. Fixed Income, Rising Rates, Trade Wars, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 18, 2018 Think Small in a Trade War? Yes, but Think Carefully, Too by Bruce Aronow, James MacGregor, Samantha S. Lau, Shri Singhvi As trade tensions escalate, investors are flocking to stocks of smaller US companies, which rely less on foreign sales than their large-cap peers. But in some industries, tariffs could affect smaller companies in unexpected ways. Active & Passive , Equities, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks