May 01, 2020 The Coronavirus Policy Wave: When Will the Bill Come Due? by Eric Winograd The onslaught of the coronavirus forced the Federal Reserve and lawmakers to take desperately needed measures. The US economy will eventually recover, but the effects of these drastic policy decisions will be felt for a long time. Coronavirus, Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 16, 2020 Fed Actions May Stabilize Global Corporate Markets by Erin Bigley, Eamonn Buckley, Tiffanie Wong Under the CARES Act, the Fed has expanded supports for corporate bonds. Could this bring a regime shift in volatility for global credit markets? Coronavirus, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 15, 2020 How Municipal Bond Issuers Will Navigate the Crisis by John Ceffalio, Daryl Clements The $2.2 trillion CARES Act and the Fed’s $500 billion muni facility will provide state and local governments an enormous amount of liquidity and financial support. Here’s how it will help. Coronavirus, Fixed Income, Municipals, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 21, 2019 US Housing Reform and the Future of CRTs by Michael S. Canter, Janaki Rao Credit risk-transfer securities have made the US mortgage market safer by shifting default risk from taxpayers to private investors. The latest attempt to overhaul the housing finance system isn’t likely to change that. Alternatives, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 30, 2019 The Case of the Missing Inflation…and What the Fed’s Doing About It by Eric Winograd US inflation has been running low for some time, and key members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) are pointing a finger at the traditional policy framework. So rate hikes are on hold for the time being—and monetary policy is under the microscope. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 26, 2019 Is the Fed Done with Rate Hikes This Year…and Next? by Eric Winograd Last week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) surprised even those who expected a dovish outcome. As the Fed wrangles with its policy framework, one takeaway is clear: don’t expect rate hikes this year—and possibly next. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Late-Cycle Investing, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 17, 2019 US Government Shutdown—Dimensioning the Economic Effects by Eric Winograd The US government shutdown is almost four weeks old, and there’s no sign that the standoff will be resolved anytime soon. How much has the shutdown impacted—and how much will it impact—economic growth? That depends on how long it lasts. Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 17, 2019 Populism Is Alive and Well: What’s the Big-Picture Impact? by Guy Bruten It’s been two years since our initial research on populism, and populist-inspired policies continue to advance today on multiple fronts. As we see it, investors should expect more of the same ahead—influencing everything from global economic growth and inflation to policies directed specifically at the corporate sector. Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 20, 2018 Fewer Fed Rate Hikes in Store—But Not Because the Economy’s Faltering by Eric Winograd As expected, the Fed hiked interest rates yesterday, but we now think there will be fewer hikes in 2019 than we previously called for. Not because the US economy is in trouble, but because the Fed is changing its approach to setting policy. Economics, Policy & Regulation, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 06, 2018 Populism: Get Used to It by Darren Williams Rising populism, slower growth and reduced liquidity top the list of downside risks to reckon with in 2019. That adds up to volatility in markets and more challenges for investors. Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 06, 2018 The Markets Are Volatile. The Fed Can Live With That. by Eric Winograd A rapid rise in US interest rates has put financial markets on the defensive lately. Will the Federal Reserve respond by slowing the pace of its tightening campaign? Don’t bet on it. Economics, Policy & Regulation, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 27, 2018 Beyond the Sugar Rush: Strategic Stimulus for Chinese Stocks by John Lin, Stuart Rae Whenever the Chinese economy slows and its stocks take a serious hit, investors have come to expect the government to unleash large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus. Another heaping spoonful of sugar may do more harm than good this time around, however. It’s time for the ailing market to take some medicine. China, Emerging Markets, Equities, Policy & Regulation, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 15, 2018 Is the New Brexit Deal Already Dead? by Darren Williams With cabinet ministers resigning by the hour, it’s tempting to think that British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the European Union (EU) is dead on arrival, and that a hard Brexit is now the most likely way forward. But some form of soft Brexit is still the most likely scenario, in our view. Brexit, Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks