March 26, 2019 Is the Fed Done with Rate Hikes This Year…and Next? by Eric Winograd Last week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) surprised even those who expected a dovish outcome. As the Fed wrangles with its policy framework, one takeaway is clear: don’t expect rate hikes this year—and possibly next. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Later in the Cycle, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 17, 2019 US Government Shutdown—Dimensioning the Economic Effects by Eric Winograd The US government shutdown is almost four weeks old, and there’s no sign that the standoff will be resolved anytime soon. How much has the shutdown impacted—and how much will it impact—economic growth? That depends on how long it lasts. Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 17, 2019 Populism Is Alive and Well: What’s the Big-Picture Impact? by Guy Bruten It’s been two years since our initial research on populism, and populist-inspired policies continue to advance today on multiple fronts. As we see it, investors should expect more of the same ahead—influencing everything from global economic growth and inflation to policies directed specifically at the corporate sector. Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 20, 2018 Fewer Fed Rate Hikes in Store—But Not Because the Economy’s Faltering by Eric Winograd As expected, the Fed hiked interest rates yesterday, but we now think there will be fewer hikes in 2019 than we previously called for. Not because the US economy is in trouble, but because the Fed is changing its approach to setting policy. Economics, Policy & Regulation, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 06, 2018 Populism: Get Used to It by Darren Williams Rising populism, slower growth and reduced liquidity top the list of downside risks to reckon with in 2019. That adds up to volatility in markets and more challenges for investors. Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 06, 2018 The Markets Are Volatile. The Fed Can Live With That. by Eric Winograd A rapid rise in US interest rates has put financial markets on the defensive lately. Will the Federal Reserve respond by slowing the pace of its tightening campaign? Don’t bet on it. Economics, Policy & Regulation, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 27, 2018 Beyond the Sugar Rush: Strategic Stimulus for Chinese Stocks by John Lin, Stuart Rae Whenever the Chinese economy slows and its stocks take a serious hit, investors have come to expect the government to unleash large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus. Another heaping spoonful of sugar may do more harm than good this time around, however. It’s time for the ailing market to take some medicine. Emerging Markets, Equities, Policy & Regulation, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 15, 2018 Is the New Brexit Deal Already Dead? by Darren Williams With cabinet ministers resigning by the hour, it’s tempting to think that British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the European Union (EU) is dead on arrival, and that a hard Brexit is now the most likely way forward. But some form of soft Brexit is still the most likely scenario, in our view. Brexit, Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
November 07, 2018 What Does a Divided US Congress Mean for the Economy and Markets? by Erin Bigley, Scott Krauthamer Democrats took the House of Representatives. Republicans held the Senate. What should investors expect from the US midterm election outcome? In the way of policy, not much. But the new political landscape may be good for markets. Economics, Equities, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
October 02, 2018 Retirement and Beyond: Congress Considers Changes to the Way Americans Save by Karen W. Scheffler With the midterm elections looming and an executive order that underscores President Trump’s interest in how Americans save for retirement, it’s increasingly possible that Congress could approve substantive retirement reform in the coming weeks. Plan Design, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
September 26, 2018 What the US Midterm Elections Mean for Policy and the Markets by Scott Krauthamer Will Democrats retake the House of Representatives in the US midterm elections this fall? Will it matter for your investment portfolio if they do? Probably not so much, although a Democratic sweep of both houses could be more disruptive. Equities, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
September 14, 2018 How the White House’s Proposals Affect Plan Sponsors and Advisors by Jennifer DeLong, Karen W. Scheffler President Trump’s most recent executive order creates the potential for significant changes in how private sector retirement plans operate. Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 14, 2018 Under Siege: How Trade Wars Affect the World’s Major Automakers by Douglas J. Peebles, Robert Schwartz From steel to engines to whole cars, tariffs are shifting the playing field for automakers. Our credit analysis suggests there are no winners in this war: consumers should expect higher sticker prices, companies lower earnings and investors more volatility. Economics, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks