May 28, 2019 China and US: Tug of Trade War by Mo Ji, Shamaila Khan The latest spike in trade tensions between the US and China raises the stakes for the G20 meeting in late June. It also has some investors questioning how China will manage growth as well as fiscal and monetary policy to keep stability through these uncertain times. Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income, Trade Wars, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 21, 2019 US Housing Reform and the Future of CRTs by Michael S. Canter, Janaki Rao Credit risk-transfer securities have made the US mortgage market safer by shifting default risk from taxpayers to private investors. The latest attempt to overhaul the housing finance system isn’t likely to change that. Alternatives, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 14, 2019 Where Next? Our Post-Recovery Outlook for Emerging-Market Debt by Shamaila Khan Emerging-market bonds got off to a strong start after a difficult 2018. Are more gains possible? We think so, and volatility sparked by increased trade tension may provide a buying opportunity for selective investors. Emerging Markets, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 08, 2019 The Three Risks Bond Investors Should Be Watching by Douglas J. Peebles Risk assets have bounced back this year after a dreadful finish in 2018, with a big assist from the US central bank. But are markets overlooking the potential for problems down the road? Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 06, 2019 Are Your Munis Stuck in a Pre-2008 World? by Daryl Clements The financial industry and the muni market has lulled a generation of muni investors into using only one approach: buy and hold to maturity. That was fine in the past, but everything’s changed post-2008 and it’s time for a better muni strategy. Active & Passive , Fixed Income, Municipals Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 30, 2019 The Case of the Missing Inflation…and What the Fed’s Doing About It by Eric Winograd US inflation has been running low for some time, and key members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) are pointing a finger at the traditional policy framework. So rate hikes are on hold for the time being—and monetary policy is under the microscope. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 29, 2019 Looking to De-Risk? High Yield Can Help by Gershon Distenfeld, Will Smith The S&P 500 Index hit an all-time high on April 23, thanks to improving investor optimism. But for some equity investors, market highs signal a good time to reduce downside risk. Shifting a modest allocation into US high yield is an efficient way of doing just that—significantly lowering overall risk while only modestly curbing potential returns. Asset Allocation, Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle, Volatility Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
April 16, 2019 Debt, Downgrades and Fallen Angels: Keeping Risks in Perspective by Matthew Sheridan, Matthew Minnetian, Gershon Distenfeld The market has grown less anxious about an imminent wave of bond downgrades. That’s good, because overestimating the risk can lead to missed opportunities. But the risk hasn’t disappeared, making research as important as ever. Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 16, 2019 Postcard from...China by John Lin Last October, we travelled to Wuhu in the eastern Anhui province, about 350 kilometers from Shanghai. When we woke up and looked out the hotel window, the thick gray smog that covered the city provided a potent reminder of one of China's most vexing problems: air pollution. Equities, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 02, 2019 Emerging Markets: Don’t Be Spooked by Bleak Headlines by Morgan Harting Signs of a recovery in emerging markets early this year have given way to worries about China’s economic slowdown and sluggish growth in Europe and Japan. But beyond the negative headlines we think many risks that weighed on the market last year have faded and the earnings outlook is relatively strong. Fixed Income, Multi-Asset Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 26, 2019 Is the Fed Done with Rate Hikes This Year…and Next? by Eric Winograd Last week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) surprised even those who expected a dovish outcome. As the Fed wrangles with its policy framework, one takeaway is clear: don’t expect rate hikes this year—and possibly next. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Later in the Cycle, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 26, 2019 Three Reasons Why It’s Time for a Barbell Strategy by Matthew Sheridan As economic cycles enter their later stages, investors sometimes find that they’re taking too much risk to generate income. There’s a strategy that can help—and we think now is the time to use it. Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 25, 2019 Beyond the Brexit Trees, Is There Light in the EU Wood? by John Taylor Now that the UK has avoided (at least for now) a hard Brexit as it negotiates to extend Article 50, investors might reasonably wonder whether they can relax for a moment and take stock of the bigger picture. What sort of longer-term future does the European Union (EU) have, irrespective of the UK? Brexit, Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks