August 15, 2018 Will Chinese Renminbi Destabilize Markets as Trade Wars Escalate? by Mo Ji The trade war between Washington and Beijing has tipped China’s currency onto a path of destabilization. If hostilities escalate, China may let its renminbi (RMB) fall further. For investors, that could mean more volatility and tighter financial conditions. Currency, Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 14, 2018 Under Siege: How Trade Wars Affect the World’s Major Automakers by Douglas J. Peebles, Robert Schwartz From steel to engines to whole cars, tariffs are shifting the playing field for automakers. Our credit analysis suggests there are no winners in this war: consumers should expect higher sticker prices, companies lower earnings and investors more volatility. Economics, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 20, 2018 Midyear Outlook: What a Trade War Could Mean for the Bond Markets, and More by Douglas J. Peebles We answer some of today’s most pressing investor questions—from the effect of trade wars with China to our expectations for rising rates and a correction in high yield. Fixed Income, Rising Rates, Trade Wars, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 17, 2018 Not Dead Yet: What Many Investors Get Wrong About the American Mall by Brian Phillips Headlines about the death of the American shopping mall have become so common that the phrase “retail apocalypse” has its own Wikipedia page. But this is a death wrongly foretold—and that creates investment opportunities. Fixed Income Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
July 10, 2018 Bonds Minus Duration: A Train Wreck in the Making? by Gershon Distenfeld A bond allocation is like a railroad. Credit is the locomotive that generates high returns, duration the track that keeps the train in line. Take the track away and you risk running your portfolio into the ditch. That’s why duration-hedged credit strategies are dangerous. Fixed Income, Rising Rates Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
July 10, 2018 Supreme Court Decision Could Relieve Stress for Some States Thanks to the Supreme Court’s decision in South Dakota v. Wayfair, Inc., states can now choose to levy sales taxes on online transactions with no physical retail presence within the state. Our chart shows the potential impact on state budgets. Fixed Income, Municipals, Policy & Regulation Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
July 03, 2018 Emerging-Market Debt: Expect Volatility—and Opportunity by Shamaila Khan, Christian DiClementi Summer is just beginning, but emerging-market (EM) bonds and currencies have been on a roller-coaster ride for months now. In markets, though, volatility breeds opportunity—and we still see plenty of that among EM issuers. Emerging Markets, Fixed Income, Volatility Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
June 26, 2018 Dangerous Yield Curves Ahead? by Erin Bigley There’s new rumblings about an inverting yield curve ahead. Is it time to panic? Time to stick our heads in the sand? Or time to think sensibly? Economics, Fixed Income Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
June 11, 2018 Three Ways to Keep Your Head Above Water as Rates Rise by Douglas J. Peebles Volatility in yields got you down? Fearful of more rising rates ahead? Worried your bond portfolio will sink into the red? We have strategies that will help keep you dry, even if the waves get high. Fixed Income, Rising Rates Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
June 06, 2018 Why It’s a Mistake to Cash Out of Bonds When Rates Rise by Douglas J. Peebles Bond investors are worried about rising rates in today’s environment. Many are protecting themselves by moving to cash or other very short investments. But is their “safe” choice putting them at risk? Fixed Income, Rising Rates Likes 2 SHARE Bookmarks
June 04, 2018 Can Emerging Markets Defy a Stronger Dollar? by Morgan Harting Turkey’s currency crisis has spooked emerging-market (EM) investors, especially amid growing concern about the strengthening US dollar. We think countries and companies in the developing world are actually much more resilient to a stronger dollar than in the past. Currency, Emerging Markets, Equities, Fixed Income, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 29, 2018 Wary of High Yield? Three Reasons Not to Be by Gershon Distenfeld, Will Smith High-yield investors bracing for a downturn in 2018 can relax. By some metrics, high-yield companies have rarely looked better. The way we see it, investors who do their homework can still profit in this environment. Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 17, 2018 Markets Unfazed by Rising Risk of Populism in Italy…for Now by Darren Williams While Italy’s bond yields have risen, investors have so far reacted relatively calmly to the rising probability of a populist Italian government. Based on the fundamentals, the potential downside scenario looms larger than markets seem willing to consider. Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks