April 16, 2019 Debt, Downgrades and Fallen Angels: Keeping Risks in Perspective by Matthew Sheridan, Matthew Minnetian, Gershon Distenfeld The market has grown less anxious about an imminent wave of bond downgrades. That’s good, because overestimating the risk can lead to missed opportunities. But the risk hasn’t disappeared, making research as important as ever. Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 02, 2019 Emerging Markets: Don’t Be Spooked by Bleak Headlines by Morgan Harting Signs of a recovery in emerging markets early this year have given way to worries about China’s economic slowdown and sluggish growth in Europe and Japan. But beyond the negative headlines we think many risks that weighed on the market last year have faded and the earnings outlook is relatively strong. Fixed Income, Multi-Asset Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 26, 2019 Is the Fed Done with Rate Hikes This Year…and Next? by Eric Winograd Last week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) surprised even those who expected a dovish outcome. As the Fed wrangles with its policy framework, one takeaway is clear: don’t expect rate hikes this year—and possibly next. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Later in the Cycle, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 26, 2019 Three Reasons Why It’s Time for a Barbell Strategy by Matthew Sheridan As economic cycles enter their later stages, investors sometimes find that they’re taking too much risk to generate income. There’s a strategy that can help—and we think now is the time to use it. Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 25, 2019 Beyond the Brexit Trees, Is There Light in the EU Wood? by John Taylor Now that the UK has avoided (at least for now) a hard Brexit as it negotiates to extend Article 50, investors might reasonably wonder whether they can relax for a moment and take stock of the bigger picture. What sort of longer-term future does the European Union (EU) have, irrespective of the UK? Brexit, Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 18, 2019 Looking Forward, Looking Back: 10 Charts After 10 Years Just over a decade ago, global markets began to recover from the biggest shock in postwar history. These 10 charts show both how much has changed since then and how post-crisis market conditions may influence the next decade. Active & Passive , Equities, Fixed Income, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 27, 2019 The Long View: China—The Indispensable Nation? by Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd A generation ago, China had little influence beyond its borders. Today, its importance to the world economy rivals the United States’. China’s role in markets is growing, too: in April, it will join a major global bond index. The future may bring a freely traded Chinese yuan and a challenge to the US dollar. Currency, Economics, Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 26, 2019 High-Yield Bonds: A Long-Term Investor’s Friend The US high-yield bond market has an impressive record when it comes to recovering drawdowns quickly. But how much can an investor who stays put reasonably expect to earn? Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 20, 2019 The Long View: Is Tech Helping or Hurting? by Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd Is the technological revolution making us more productive? Are we measuring productivity properly? And what does it all mean for monetary policy and countries’ growth potential? Economics, Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 13, 2019 The Long View: The Problem with Populism by Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd Populist, anti-establishment policies will be with us for a while because the conditions that inspire them, such as rising inequality and stagnant incomes, will, too. That has long-term implications for inflation and global growth that investors cannot ignore. Economics, Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 12, 2019 High Yield: The Comeback Kid How swift will the high-yield recovery be? How likely is it to be sustained? History sheds some light. Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 06, 2019 The Long View: Debt and Demographics by Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd Countries and companies have been on a borrowing binge even as the growth of the working-age population in many parts of the world slows. Is a prolonged period of low growth and low inflation in our future? Economics, Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 05, 2019 Can a High-Yield Allocation Still Offset Equity Volatility? by Gershon Distenfeld Should you be concerned that high-yield bonds didn’t predict last year’s equity market selloff? We don’t think so. In fact, we think investors should consider adding high-yield exposure to reduce overall risk. Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks