June 06, 2019 Trade Wars Likely to Change the Fed’s Interest-Rate Game Plan by Eric Winograd The trade war has taken a harsher turn, threatening to further dampen economic growth. We expect the Fed to respond with sizable rate cuts, but the timing and amounts are more speculative than normal. Why? Economic data haven’t yet taken a major downward turn, and there’s uncertainty over how the Fed will react. Economics, Fixed Income, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 04, 2019 What’s Up (or Down) with the Fed’s Balance Sheet by Eric Winograd The US central bank recently said it would not shrink its balance sheet by as much as many investors had feared. Here’s why—and why it matters. Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 31, 2019 Will Modern Monetary Theory Go Mainstream? by Eric Winograd Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has moved from the fringe to broader public discussion recently, fueling concern from some investors about growing debt levels. We don’t expect MMT to replace our current economic structure, but its populist-inspired underpinnings will likely have a sizable influence on policy. Economics, Inflation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 31, 2019 Brexit Update: New Developments Raise “No Deal” Risks by Darren Williams Two important political developments in the UK over the last week have raised new questions about the Brexit outlook. While there’s still time for a compromise to be reached, we think the risk of the UK leaving the EU without a deal has increased. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 28, 2019 China and US: Tug of Trade War by Mo Ji, Shamaila Khan The latest spike in trade tensions between the US and China raises the stakes for the G20 meeting in late June. It also has some investors questioning how China will manage growth as well as fiscal and monetary policy to keep stability through these uncertain times. Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income, Trade Wars, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 30, 2019 The Case of the Missing Inflation…and What the Fed’s Doing About It by Eric Winograd US inflation has been running low for some time, and key members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) are pointing a finger at the traditional policy framework. So rate hikes are on hold for the time being—and monetary policy is under the microscope. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 17, 2019 The Late, Late Cycle: Preparing for a World of Lower Returns by Richard Brink, Walt Czaicki These are tricky days for the global economy. As growth downshifts and corporate earnings weaken, some investors are dusting off playbooks for late-cycle investing. That makes sense, but there are a few twists to today’s market conditions that may require new responses. Active & Passive , Economics, Equities, Inflation, Later in the Cycle Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 11, 2019 Brexit Extension: It’s Progress, but Not as We Know It by Darren Williams The European Union has given Britain seven more months to sort out its exit plans. While the chaos of a disorderly Brexit has been averted for now, we think the compromise could have some unintended consequences. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 26, 2019 Is the Fed Done with Rate Hikes This Year…and Next? by Eric Winograd Last week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) surprised even those who expected a dovish outcome. As the Fed wrangles with its policy framework, one takeaway is clear: don’t expect rate hikes this year—and possibly next. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Later in the Cycle, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 25, 2019 Beyond the Brexit Trees, Is There Light in the EU Wood? by John Taylor Now that the UK has avoided (at least for now) a hard Brexit as it negotiates to extend Article 50, investors might reasonably wonder whether they can relax for a moment and take stock of the bigger picture. What sort of longer-term future does the European Union (EU) have, irrespective of the UK? Brexit, Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 18, 2019 Brexit: Is the Show that Never Ends About to Enter Another Act? by Darren Williams Nearly three years after the UK voted to leave the European Union (EU), the deadline for Brexit is less than two weeks away and the British government is asking for more time. While it’s easy to be distracted by the ongoing chaos in Parliament, it’s important to maintain a steady focus on the underlying parameters of the debate and the range of possible outcomes. These have shifted less than might be imagined. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 27, 2019 The Long View: China—The Indispensable Nation? by Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd A generation ago, China had little influence beyond its borders. Today, its importance to the world economy rivals the United States’. China’s role in markets is growing, too: in April, it will join a major global bond index. The future may bring a freely traded Chinese yuan and a challenge to the US dollar. Currency, Economics, Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 22, 2019 Five Reasons Europe Should Avoid Recession in 2019 by Darren Williams The euro area faces another challenging year, but we see a continuation of recent soft growth as much more likely than recession. The European Central Bank (ECB) is, nonetheless, now likely to delay its first rate hike to 2020, and could also implement fresh credit-easing measures. Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks