May 01, 2020 The Coronavirus Policy Wave: When Will the Bill Come Due? by Eric Winograd The onslaught of the coronavirus forced the Federal Reserve and lawmakers to take desperately needed measures. The US economy will eventually recover, but the effects of these drastic policy decisions will be felt for a long time. Coronavirus, Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 30, 2020 Italian Sovereign Debt: How to Avoid Being Junked by Darren Williams Italy’s credit rating is under pressure. In an unscheduled downgrade on April 28, Fitch lowered the country’s sovereign rating to BBB-minus, just a notch above junk. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 27, 2020 Coronavirus Challenges the European Project by Darren Williams The coronavirus has exposed the European Union’s (EU’s) fault lines. For now, European Central Bank (ECB) bond purchases should hold things together. But ultimately, national governments will need to take some tough decisions to secure the EU’s future. Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 20, 2020 Coronavirus and the US Economy: How Big Will the Hit Be? by Eric Winograd The decline in US economic activity from social distancing measures and forced shutdowns is likely to be bigger than our initial guess. While we expect a recovery once the coronavirus crisis eases, we don’t have enough information yet to dimension it. Business Owners, Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 27, 2020 The Key Part of the US Fiscal Relief Package? Willingness to Act by Eric Winograd The historic US fiscal aid package isn’t a quick fix, but it provides welcome relief and will make it easier for the US economy to rebound when the coronavirus crisis eases. More important, it shows that Congress is willing to act swiftly and dynamically. Business Owners, Coronavirus, Economics, Equities, Fixed Income, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 24, 2020 Five Ways Policymakers Can Beat the Coronavirus by Darren Williams Policymakers cannot avert a big near-term economic hit. But they can build the foundations for recovery—if they take the right steps now. Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 18, 2020 The Fed Could Roll Out De Facto Fiscal Policy Under Section 13(3) by Eric Winograd Conventional wisdom says the Fed is pretty much out of tools to support markets and an economy derailed by the coronavirus. But if things don’t stabilize soon or if the fiscal response is too slow, we expect the Fed to take on broad fiscal-like authority to funnel liquidity into struggling businesses and households. Coronavirus, Economics, Equities, Fixed Income, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 16, 2020 How Can European Policymakers Beat the Coronavirus? by Darren Williams Europe has changed swiftly from spectator to front-line combatant in the battle against the coronavirus. The potential damage from its spread is severe, but European policymakers are reacting robustly to the threat. Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 10, 2020 The Fed and Coronavirus: Is Fiscal Help Needed, Too? by Eric Winograd With markets reeling from concerns over the coronavirus and plummeting oil prices, the US Federal Reserve took another step Monday to shore up markets. The Fed has more in its toolbox, but fiscal policy may also be needed to fill a gap in the US economy. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, Late-Cycle Investing, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 05, 2020 How Will the Coronavirus Impact World Economies? by Darren Williams The coronavirus is dominating the news and sparking panic in markets. We believe the options for policymakers are clear—but will they implement them? Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 04, 2020 Fed May Cut Rates Further to Counter Coronavirus Headwinds by Eric Winograd This week’s Fed rate cut helped steady financial markets reeling from the expected impact of the coronavirus on the US economy, and we think more cuts are coming—in March and beyond. The economy should rebound in the second half of the year, though at a lower full-year pace. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, Low-Yield Environment, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 26, 2020 China’s Bond Markets Can Weather Coronavirus by Jenny Zeng, Mo Ji, Hua Cheng As China’s leaders scramble to contain the COVID-19 epidemic, the global community braces for impact to China’s people, equity and bond markets, and economy. China, Coronavirus, Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
February 24, 2020 The Late Cycle: Fiscal Stimulus Ahead? by Scott DiMaggio, Eric Winograd Is the impact of global monetary stimulus waning? Our Co-Head of Fixed Income and our US economist discuss whether fiscal stimulus will pick up the slack. Economics, Fixed Income, Late-Cycle Investing, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks