February 01, 2021 Better Stimulus Odds Are Shot in the Arm for US Growth Expectations by Eric Winograd The probability of more fiscal relief from Congress has risen—good news for the US economy and a boost to our growth forecast. While risks remain, and it’s too early to talk about the pandemic in the past tense, we’re optimistic the economy can return to more normal footing soon. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 04, 2020 A Road Map to the Coming US Economic Cycle by Eric Winograd With a greater level of clarity than we’ve had since the COVID-19 pandemic, we’re getting a better sense of how the US economy might shape up over the next few months, into 2022 and beyond. We see three distinct stages over that time frame. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Low-Yield Environment Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 27, 2020 Will 2021 Mark the Launch of a Durable Global Recovery? by Darren Williams After a difficult winter, we expect the global economy to rebound strongly next year. But structural headwinds remain. Will the post-pandemic bounce trigger a durable and broad-based global reflation? Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, Low-Yield Environment Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 17, 2020 Will US-China Relations Shift Under Biden? China Seems to Think So by Mo Ji Consensus appears to be forming among Chinese policymakers that the US-China relationship will change under a Biden administration. We touch on seven expectations. China, Economics, Fixed Income, Trade Wars, US Election Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 10, 2020 Elections? Vaccines? What They Could Mean for the US Economy by Eric Winograd Two recent developments could have big implications for the US economic outlook: general elections and news of very promising progress on a COVID-19 vaccine. To understand the ramifications, we have to distinguish near term from longer term. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, US Election Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 04, 2020 Is There Light at the End of the COVID-19 Tunnel for the Euro Area? by Darren Williams A fresh round of lockdowns means a difficult winter lies ahead for the euro area. But three factors caution against excessive pessimism. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
November 02, 2020 4Q:2020 Capital Markets Outlook Broadcast by Walt Czaicki The roller-coaster ride of 2020 still has a few twists and turns to navigate. But the massive policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic brought a quick, though incomplete, recovery. With volatility expected to continue, where can investors look for opportunities? Economics Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
October 22, 2020 Japan After Abe: Continuity and Change by Masahiko Loo As Prime Minister Suga begins his administration, the message is one of continuity, but Abenomics may need a reboot after COVID-19. We examine what Suganomics may mean for Japan. Economics, Fixed Income Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
October 08, 2020 US Economy Still Faces a Long Path Back to Normal by Eric Winograd US third quarter GDP was better than expected, though our updated economic forecasts still show a quick but incomplete recovery. Over time, this should give way to a more gradual, lengthy path back to “normal.” But there are a lot of moving parts. Economics, Fixed Income Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
September 16, 2020 Brexit Negotiations: One Minute to Midnight by Darren Williams The Brexit negotiations are growing more adversarial with no signs of agreement on key issues. The most likely outcomes are now the hardest and most disruptive Brexit scenarios—leading to further potential weakness for the UK’s currency. Brexit, Economics, Fixed Income Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
September 10, 2020 The End Game: How Governments Might Tackle Debt Burdens by Darren Williams, Guy Bruten A wave of policy support to stabilize the world economy has left developed nations with a growing public debt load. What path will governments follow to address the issue? History offers several debt-reduction templates. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Low-Yield Environment Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
September 02, 2020 2020 US Election: What the Polls Could Mean for Policy and Markets by Eric Winograd With US elections about two months away, investors are intensifying their focus on the presidential and congressional contests. Historically, political transitions haven’t had much impact on the economy and markets, but this time could be different. Economics, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation, US Election Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 05, 2020 Why the US Economy Needs More Stimulus Very Soon US household income has held steady, but only because of stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment benefits. As Congress debates the shape and scope of the next package, economic data show a clear need for more help sooner rather than later. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks