March 18, 2020 The Fed Could Roll Out De Facto Fiscal Policy Under Section 13(3) by Eric Winograd Conventional wisdom says the Fed is pretty much out of tools to support markets and an economy derailed by the coronavirus. But if things don’t stabilize soon or if the fiscal response is too slow, we expect the Fed to take on broad fiscal-like authority to funnel liquidity into struggling businesses and households. Coronavirus, Economics, Equities, Fixed Income, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 16, 2020 How Can European Policymakers Beat the Coronavirus? by Darren Williams Europe has changed swiftly from spectator to front-line combatant in the battle against the coronavirus. The potential damage from its spread is severe, but European policymakers are reacting robustly to the threat. Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 10, 2020 The Fed and Coronavirus: Is Fiscal Help Needed, Too? by Eric Winograd With markets reeling from concerns over the coronavirus and plummeting oil prices, the US Federal Reserve took another step Monday to shore up markets. The Fed has more in its toolbox, but fiscal policy may also be needed to fill a gap in the US economy. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, Late-Cycle Investing, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 05, 2020 How Will the Coronavirus Impact World Economies? by Darren Williams The coronavirus is dominating the news and sparking panic in markets. We believe the options for policymakers are clear—but will they implement them? Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 04, 2020 Fed May Cut Rates Further to Counter Coronavirus Headwinds by Eric Winograd This week’s Fed rate cut helped steady financial markets reeling from the expected impact of the coronavirus on the US economy, and we think more cuts are coming—in March and beyond. The economy should rebound in the second half of the year, though at a lower full-year pace. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 26, 2020 China’s Bond Markets Can Weather Coronavirus by Jenny Zeng, Mo Ji, Hua Cheng As China’s leaders scramble to contain the COVID-19 epidemic, the global community braces for impact to China’s people, equity and bond markets, and economy. China, Coronavirus, Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
February 24, 2020 The Late Cycle: Fiscal Stimulus Ahead? by Scott DiMaggio, Eric Winograd Is the impact of global monetary stimulus waning? Our Co-Head of Fixed Income and our US economist discuss whether fiscal stimulus will pick up the slack. Economics, Fixed Income, Late-Cycle Investing, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 05, 2020 Navigating Political Risk in Latin America’s Andean Region by Armando Armenta Late in 2019, Chile, Colombia and Peru saw an uptick in political turmoil that was unusual, given that they’re perceived as politically stable countries with “market-friendly” policies. With several key elections on tap in 2020, we’re watching closely for potential risk flare-ups. Economics, Emerging Markets Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 05, 2020 The Late Cycle: The Fed Balance Sheet by Scott DiMaggio, Eric Winograd The Fed balance sheet is back. Our Co-Head of Fixed Income and our US economist discuss what recent stimulus means to the economy and markets. Economics, Fixed Income, Late-Cycle Investing Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 05, 2020 Brexit: It Ain’t Over till It’s Over by Darren Williams At 11 p.m. GMT on Friday 31st January, the UK formally left the European Union. Thank goodness for that, many will say. Unfortunately, it isn’t quite that simple, as the UK and the EU still need to reach agreement on the shape of their future trading relationship. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 23, 2020 Will the Wuhan Coronavirus Infect China’s Economy? by Mo Ji A virus is spreading across China, causing disruption, severe illness and even death. In addition to the tragic human cost of an epidemic, widespread disease can cause significant macroeconomic damage. We estimate the potential impact of the Wuhan coronavirus on China’s GDP growth. China, Coronavirus, Economics, Emerging Markets Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 16, 2020 The Phase-One US-China Trade Agreement: Cease-Fire, Not Peace Treaty by Eric Winograd The US and China formally signed a phase-one trade deal Wednesday after several months of negotiations. We see the deal as a near-term positive for markets—but it also leaves the thorniest issues between the two countries unresolved. China, Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 06, 2020 How Will Trade Wars and Populism Play Out? by Darren Williams, Guy Bruten Brexit, US–China trade tensions, elections around the world—these issues are linked to much deeper, longer running populist trends which aren’t going away any time soon. These and other populist concerns will contribute for some time to the slow-growth environment we’re in now. Brexit, Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks