July 23, 2020 EU Recovery Fund: No Gamechanger but a Clear Positive by Darren Williams The new European Union (EU) recovery fund is not quite the giant step toward fiscal union that some commentators claim. But it cements an increasingly impressive policy response to COVID-19 that warrants cautious optimism on the cyclical outlook. Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 15, 2020 How Will European Government Bond Markets Navigate the New Era? by Darren Williams, John Taylor COVID-19 is triggering a new era of central banking. We believe this will play out just as powerfully in the euro area as elsewhere. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, Low-Yield Environment, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 11, 2020 The Fed Didn’t Ease More...Is That a Missed Opportunity? by Eric Winograd The Fed gave its updated economic outlook this week, but not the additional policy support markets were looking for. We think this was a misstep...but one we hope will be corrected if the outlook doesn’t improve. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, Low-Yield Environment Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 04, 2020 Can the Coronavirus Crisis Bring Positive Change to Emerging Markets? by Adriaan du Toit Emerging markets (EM) are at a crossroads. The impact of COVID-19 aggravates pre-existing challenges. But it also enables those EM economies that respond effectively to create better conditions for the future. Coronavirus, Economics, Emerging Markets Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 21, 2020 How Will the Coronavirus Change the Role of Central Banks? by Darren Williams COVID-19 has supplied the catalyst for a secular change in the role of central banks. Providing governments with ammunition to fight the virus is now the overriding goal, and this means keeping bond yields pinned close to zero for the foreseeable future. Coronavirus, Economics, Low-Yield Environment Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 18, 2020 The Market and Negative US Rates: Right Idea, Wrong Tool by Eric Winograd The Fed continues to dismiss the idea of negative US rates but the market keeps pricing them in. We don’t expect negative rates: in our view, the market is using them as a proxy for Fed measures that may be needed but aren’t yet identified. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, Low-Yield Environment, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 14, 2020 What We Can Learn from China’s Rapid Normalization by Mo Ji China is further along the coronavirus curve than much of the rest of the world. What does its path to normal look like, and what are the big unknowns? China, Coronavirus, Economics, Emerging Markets, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 01, 2020 The Coronavirus Policy Wave: When Will the Bill Come Due? by Eric Winograd The onslaught of the coronavirus forced the Federal Reserve and lawmakers to take desperately needed measures. The US economy will eventually recover, but the effects of these drastic policy decisions will be felt for a long time. Coronavirus, Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 30, 2020 Italian Sovereign Debt: How to Avoid Being Junked by Darren Williams Italy’s credit rating is under pressure. In an unscheduled downgrade on April 28, Fitch lowered the country’s sovereign rating to BBB-minus, just a notch above junk. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 27, 2020 Coronavirus Challenges the European Project by Darren Williams The coronavirus has exposed the European Union’s (EU’s) fault lines. For now, European Central Bank (ECB) bond purchases should hold things together. But ultimately, national governments will need to take some tough decisions to secure the EU’s future. Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 20, 2020 Coronavirus and the US Economy: How Big Will the Hit Be? by Eric Winograd The decline in US economic activity from social distancing measures and forced shutdowns is likely to be bigger than our initial guess. While we expect a recovery once the coronavirus crisis eases, we don’t have enough information yet to dimension it. Business Owners, Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 27, 2020 The Key Part of the US Fiscal Relief Package? Willingness to Act by Eric Winograd The historic US fiscal aid package isn’t a quick fix, but it provides welcome relief and will make it easier for the US economy to rebound when the coronavirus crisis eases. More important, it shows that Congress is willing to act swiftly and dynamically. Business Owners, Coronavirus, Economics, Equities, Fixed Income, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 24, 2020 Five Ways Policymakers Can Beat the Coronavirus by Darren Williams Policymakers cannot avert a big near-term economic hit. But they can build the foundations for recovery—if they take the right steps now. Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks