January 17, 2019 US Government Shutdown—Dimensioning the Economic Effects by Eric Winograd The US government shutdown is almost four weeks old, and there’s no sign that the standoff will be resolved anytime soon. How much has the shutdown impacted—and how much will it impact—economic growth? That depends on how long it lasts. Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 17, 2019 Populism Is Alive and Well: What’s the Big-Picture Impact? by Guy Bruten It’s been two years since our initial research on populism, and populist-inspired policies continue to advance today on multiple fronts. As we see it, investors should expect more of the same ahead—influencing everything from global economic growth and inflation to policies directed specifically at the corporate sector. Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 14, 2019 2019 Elections in Scope: Nigeria & South Africa by Adriaan du Toit The two biggest economies in Africa—Nigeria and South Africa—both have presidential elections in 2019. The results will set the stage for the next phase of these economies as well as investor interest in them. These elections could also have implications for the economic future throughout the continent. Economics, Emerging Markets, Equities, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 09, 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook: Three Themes We’re Watching in 2019 by Douglas J. Peebles The past year was a rough ride for bond investors. Will 2019 deliver more of the same? Economics, Fixed Income, Rising Rates, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 20, 2018 Fewer Fed Rate Hikes in Store—But Not Because the Economy’s Faltering by Eric Winograd As expected, the Fed hiked interest rates yesterday, but we now think there will be fewer hikes in 2019 than we previously called for. Not because the US economy is in trouble, but because the Fed is changing its approach to setting policy. Economics, Policy & Regulation, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 07, 2018 The Upside/Downside of Global Risk in 2019 Global growth is moderating and inflation is rising. Drill down into specific regions and countries, however, and there’s a lot more variation. For example, growth is likely to remain strong in the US and could falter in China. The United Kingdom is grappling with Brexit, while the rise of populism in Italy creates serious concerns for the Euro area. Find our growth forecasts and the upside and downside risks driving our outlook for the world’s economies in our infographic below. Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 06, 2018 Populism: Get Used to It by Darren Williams Rising populism, slower growth and reduced liquidity top the list of downside risks to reckon with in 2019. That adds up to volatility in markets and more challenges for investors. Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 06, 2018 The Markets Are Volatile. The Fed Can Live With That. by Eric Winograd A rapid rise in US interest rates has put financial markets on the defensive lately. Will the Federal Reserve respond by slowing the pace of its tightening campaign? Don’t bet on it. Economics, Policy & Regulation, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 15, 2018 Is the New Brexit Deal Already Dead? by Darren Williams With cabinet ministers resigning by the hour, it’s tempting to think that British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the European Union (EU) is dead on arrival, and that a hard Brexit is now the most likely way forward. But some form of soft Brexit is still the most likely scenario, in our view. Brexit, Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
November 07, 2018 What Does a Divided US Congress Mean for the Economy and Markets? by Erin Bigley, Scott Krauthamer Democrats took the House of Representatives. Republicans held the Senate. What should investors expect from the US midterm election outcome? In the way of policy, not much. But the new political landscape may be good for markets. Economics, Equities, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
November 01, 2018 Red Wave/Blue Wave? Thoughts on the US Election by Eric Winograd What might the US midterm election results mean for fiscal policy and financial markets? Probably not much if Democrats and Republicans end up splitting control of Congress. But a sweep by either party could lead to very different outcomes. Economics, Equities, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
October 02, 2018 NAFTA 2.0: A Bold New Beginning? Or a Modest Rewrite? by Eric Winograd The revised NAFTA deal relieves uncertainty for Canada and avoids a possible Mexican barrier to ratification. But what does it really mean for the three countries involved—or for trade tension with China? Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
September 27, 2018 The Fed’s on Auto-Pilot—For Now by Eric Winograd When it comes to the official US short-term interest rate, the Federal Reserve now appears to be on autopilot, with three more quarter-percentage-point increases likely by mid-2019. But after that, things should get more complicated. Economics, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks