February 26, 2020 China’s Bond Markets Can Weather Coronavirus by Jenny Zeng, Mo Ji, Hua Cheng As China’s leaders scramble to contain the COVID-19 epidemic, the global community braces for impact to China’s people, equity and bond markets, and economy. China, Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 24, 2020 The Late Cycle: Fiscal Stimulus Ahead? by Scott DiMaggio, Eric Winograd Is the impact of global monetary stimulus waning? Our Co-Head of Fixed Income and our US economist discuss whether fiscal stimulus will pick up the slack. Economics, Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 05, 2020 Navigating Political Risk in Latin America’s Andean Region by Armando Armenta Late in 2019, Chile, Colombia and Peru saw an uptick in political turmoil that was unusual, given that they’re perceived as politically stable countries with “market-friendly” policies. With several key elections on tap in 2020, we’re watching closely for potential risk flare-ups. Economics, Emerging Markets Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 05, 2020 The Late Cycle: The Fed Balance Sheet by Scott DiMaggio, Eric Winograd The Fed balance sheet is back. Our Co-Head of Fixed Income and our US economist discuss what recent stimulus means to the economy and markets. Economics, Fixed Income, Late-Cycle Investing Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 05, 2020 Brexit: It Ain’t Over till It’s Over by Darren Williams At 11 p.m. GMT on Friday 31st January, the UK formally left the European Union. Thank goodness for that, many will say. Unfortunately, it isn’t quite that simple, as the UK and the EU still need to reach agreement on the shape of their future trading relationship. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 23, 2020 Will the Wuhan Coronavirus Infect China’s Economy? by Mo Ji A virus is spreading across China, causing disruption, severe illness and even death. In addition to the tragic human cost of an epidemic, widespread disease can cause significant macroeconomic damage. We estimate the potential impact of the Wuhan coronavirus on China’s GDP growth. Economics, Emerging Markets Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 16, 2020 The Phase-One US-China Trade Agreement: Cease-Fire, Not Peace Treaty by Eric Winograd The US and China formally signed a phase-one trade deal Wednesday after several months of negotiations. We see the deal as a near-term positive for markets—but it also leaves the thorniest issues between the two countries unresolved. Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 06, 2020 How Will Trade Wars and Populism Play Out? by Darren Williams, Guy Bruten Brexit, US–China trade tensions, elections around the world—these issues are linked to much deeper, longer running populist trends which aren’t going away any time soon. These and other populist concerns will contribute for some time to the slow-growth environment we’re in now. Brexit, Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 18, 2019 Three Possible Paths for Fed Interest Rate Policy in 2020 by Eric Winograd The US Fed held rates steady in December and plans to continue that stance through 2020. But a lot can happen to change the Fed’s mind—after all, it entered 2019 expecting to hike rates and ended up with three cuts. What does 2020 have in store? Economics, Late-Cycle Investing Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 10, 2019 Is Investing in Gold Worth Its Weight? by Vinod Chathlani Few assets have as much polarized debate and disagreement on their role as an investment than gold. “Gold bugs” tout its reliability as a store of value, while skeptics view gold as a “barbarous relic” whose value is driven primarily by sentiment and occasional mania. Alternatives, Asset Allocation, Economics, Inflation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 09, 2019 What’s the Forecast for Fiscal Stimulus? by Darren Williams, Guy Bruten Monetary policy for many central banks is reaching the end of the road for effectiveness. Where and when might economic support shift from monetary policy to fiscal policy Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 13, 2019 Fed Next Steps: What’s Likely, What’s Not by Eric Winograd The Fed has signaled it is unlikely to cut interest rates again in December, but we expect further rate cuts next year. We believe the Fed has not yet done enough to protect the economy against headwinds. While we don’t forecast a US recession, we think additional monetary policy easing will be needed to stabilize growth. Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
October 02, 2019 Is The Brexit End Game Finally In Sight? by Darren Williams The battle for Brexit has undermined traditional political affiliations and triggered changes in the UK’s constitutional order that could affect future governability. We may now be approaching the end game, though the outcome might not be the one markets are counting on. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks