May 17, 2018 Markets Unfazed by Rising Risk of Populism in Italy…for Now by Darren Williams While Italy’s bond yields have risen, investors have so far reacted relatively calmly to the rising probability of a populist Italian government. Based on the fundamentals, the potential downside scenario looms larger than markets seem willing to consider. Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 03, 2018 The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: Three Reasons US Rates are Going Up by Eric Winograd The US Federal Reserve decided against an official short-term rate hike at this week’s meeting—hardly a surprise. But US Treasury yields continue to climb in 2018, and not all the explanations are good news. Economics, Rising Rates Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
April 24, 2018 Dangerous Yield Curves Ahead? by Erin Bigley There’s new rumblings about an inverting yield curve ahead. Is it time to panic? Time to stick our heads in the sand? Or time to think sensibly? Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 23, 2018 Will Geopolitics Fuel Global Volatility? by Darren Williams Economic trends clearly point toward higher inflation and interest rates ahead, which will likely make capital markets more volatile. Based on recent headlines, politics seems likely to add fuel to this fire. Economics, Rising Rates, Volatility Likes 2 SHARE Bookmarks
March 23, 2018 High Stakes: Why Trade Policy Matters by Eric Winograd Steel and aluminum tariffs aren’t a big deal for the US economy. But they may be for US trading partners and global growth. Focus on the trade shortfall also obscures a bigger concern: the US fiscal deficit. Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 22, 2018 Can Investors Make Money in a US–China Trade War? by Stuart Rae, John Lin President Trump’s plans for tariffs on about $60 billion of Chinese imports have rattled equity markets. Investors should begin to study which types of industries, countries and companies could win or lose if an all-out trade war erupts. Economics, Emerging Markets, Equities Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
March 20, 2018 Where Will the Fed’s Rate-Hike Cycle End? by Eric Winograd There’s not much suspense around this week’s Fed meeting: the fed funds target rate is almost certain to rise by 25 basis points. We think it’s more important not to overlook this cycle’s endgame. Economics, Inflation, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 15, 2018 US Inflation: Signs Are Pointing Up by Eric Winograd Market volatility has spiked recently, driven largely by growing concerns about rising inflation and interest rates. We think the volatility is exaggerated, but we’re not surprised inflation is rising—and rates along with it. Economics, Inflation, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 09, 2018 As Volatility Spikes, Watch the Economy, Not the Market by Eric Winograd The tremors that have battered financial markets recently have been nerve-wracking. But remember, the market is not the economy. Economic growth can persist even when markets decline, and that growth can eventually help to stop the slide. Economics, Equities, Fixed Income, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 24, 2018 Five Reasons the Fed Could Hike More than You Think by Eric Winograd As 2018 gets rolling, markets don’t have great expectations for Fed interest-rate hikes. Based on futures pricing, roughly two small increases are anticipated this year. We think there will be more. Economics, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 02, 2018 Emerging-Market Debt in 2018: The View from Here by Shamaila Khan Emerging-market bonds delivered strong returns last year, and we think the sector has more potential. In 2018, though, investors will have to exercise caution. Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 15, 2017 Fed Policy for 2018? If It Isn’t Broken… by Eric Winograd With the US economy humming and the Fed seemingly pushing all the right buttons, it makes sense to expect more of the same in 2018. That means more rate hikes on the way. The question is: How many? Economics, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 05, 2017 What Should Europe’s Bond Investors Be Watching in 2018? by Markus Peters, Flavio Carpenzano This year may be remembered for its low volatility and the strong performance of nearly all asset classes across almost all geographic markets. But 2018 may follow a different playbook. Economics, Fixed Income, Rising Rates, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks