May 21, 2020 How Will the Coronavirus Change the Role of Central Banks? by Darren Williams COVID-19 has supplied the catalyst for a secular change in the role of central banks. Providing governments with ammunition to fight the virus is now the overriding goal, and this means keeping bond yields pinned close to zero for the foreseeable future. Coronavirus, Economics, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 18, 2020 The Market and Negative US Rates: Right Idea, Wrong Tool by Eric Winograd The Fed continues to dismiss the idea of negative US rates but the market keeps pricing them in. We don’t expect negative rates: in our view, the market is using them as a proxy for Fed measures that may be needed but aren’t yet identified. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 18, 2020 Crisis Dashboard: Big Data Helps Paint the Big Picture (Update) by Jonathan Berkow, Scott Krauthamer Many investors are looking for emerging signs of a return to normalcy from the coronavirus crisis. While there are many indicators to choose from, we’ve assembled a group of signals, with the help of big data, that may point the way. Coronavirus, Economics, Equities, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 14, 2020 What We Can Learn from China’s Rapid Normalization by Mo Ji China is further along the coronavirus curve than much of the rest of the world. What does its path to normal look like, and what are the big unknowns? China, Coronavirus, Economics, Emerging Markets, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 01, 2020 The Coronavirus Policy Wave: When Will the Bill Come Due? by Eric Winograd The onslaught of the coronavirus forced the Federal Reserve and lawmakers to take desperately needed measures. The US economy will eventually recover, but the effects of these drastic policy decisions will be felt for a long time. Coronavirus, Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 30, 2020 Italian Sovereign Debt: How to Avoid Being Junked by Darren Williams Italy’s credit rating is under pressure. In an unscheduled downgrade on April 28, Fitch lowered the country’s sovereign rating to BBB-minus, just a notch above junk. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 27, 2020 Coronavirus Challenges the European Project by Darren Williams The coronavirus has exposed the European Union’s (EU’s) fault lines. For now, European Central Bank (ECB) bond purchases should hold things together. But ultimately, national governments will need to take some tough decisions to secure the EU’s future. Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 20, 2020 Coronavirus and the US Economy: How Big Will the Hit Be? by Eric Winograd The decline in US economic activity from social distancing measures and forced shutdowns is likely to be bigger than our initial guess. While we expect a recovery once the coronavirus crisis eases, we don’t have enough information yet to dimension it. Business Owners, Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 27, 2020 The Key Part of the US Fiscal Relief Package? Willingness to Act by Eric Winograd The historic US fiscal aid package isn’t a quick fix, but it provides welcome relief and will make it easier for the US economy to rebound when the coronavirus crisis eases. More important, it shows that Congress is willing to act swiftly and dynamically. Business Owners, Coronavirus, Economics, Equities, Fixed Income, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 24, 2020 Five Ways Policymakers Can Beat the Coronavirus by Darren Williams Policymakers cannot avert a big near-term economic hit. But they can build the foundations for recovery—if they take the right steps now. Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 18, 2020 The Fed Could Roll Out De Facto Fiscal Policy Under Section 13(3) by Eric Winograd Conventional wisdom says the Fed is pretty much out of tools to support markets and an economy derailed by the coronavirus. But if things don’t stabilize soon or if the fiscal response is too slow, we expect the Fed to take on broad fiscal-like authority to funnel liquidity into struggling businesses and households. Coronavirus, Economics, Equities, Fixed Income, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 16, 2020 How Can European Policymakers Beat the Coronavirus? by Darren Williams Europe has changed swiftly from spectator to front-line combatant in the battle against the coronavirus. The potential damage from its spread is severe, but European policymakers are reacting robustly to the threat. Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 10, 2020 The Fed and Coronavirus: Is Fiscal Help Needed, Too? by Eric Winograd With markets reeling from concerns over the coronavirus and plummeting oil prices, the US Federal Reserve took another step Monday to shore up markets. The Fed has more in its toolbox, but fiscal policy may also be needed to fill a gap in the US economy. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, Late-Cycle Investing, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks