September 16, 2020 Brexit Negotiations: One Minute to Midnight by Darren Williams The Brexit negotiations are growing more adversarial with no signs of agreement on key issues. The most likely outcomes are now the hardest and most disruptive Brexit scenarios—leading to further potential weakness for the UK’s currency. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
September 10, 2020 The End Game: How Governments Might Tackle Debt Burdens by Darren Williams, Guy Bruten A wave of policy support to stabilize the world economy has left developed nations with a growing public debt load. What path will governments follow to address the issue? History offers several debt-reduction templates. Coronavirus, Economics, Inflation, Low-Yield Environment Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
September 02, 2020 2020 US Election: What the Polls Could Mean for Policy and Markets by Eric Winograd With US elections about two months away, investors are intensifying their focus on the presidential and congressional contests. Historically, political transitions haven’t had much impact on the economy and markets, but this time could be different. Economics, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
September 01, 2020 Crisis Dashboard: Big Data Helps Paint the Big Picture (September Update) by Jonathan Berkow, Scott Krauthamer Many investors are looking for emerging signs of a return to normalcy from the coronavirus crisis. While there are many indicators to choose from, we’ve assembled a group of signals, with the help of big data, that may point the way. Coronavirus, Economics, Equities, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 05, 2020 Why the US Economy Needs More Stimulus Very Soon US household income has held steady, but only because of stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment benefits. As Congress debates the shape and scope of the next package, economic data show a clear need for more help sooner rather than later. Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 03, 2020 3Q:2020 Capital Markets Outlook Broadcast by Richard Brink Governments across the globe worked to offset pressures created by the novel coronavirus during the quarter. While the massive government response has been successful so far, the critical question remains – Will the response be long enough and strong enough to bridge to the other side of the virus? Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 23, 2020 EU Recovery Fund: No Gamechanger but a Clear Positive by Darren Williams The new European Union (EU) recovery fund is not quite the giant step toward fiscal union that some commentators claim. But it cements an increasingly impressive policy response to COVID-19 that warrants cautious optimism on the cyclical outlook. Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 15, 2020 How Will European Government Bond Markets Navigate the New Era? by Darren Williams, John Taylor COVID-19 is triggering a new era of central banking. We believe this will play out just as powerfully in the euro area as elsewhere. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, Low-Yield Environment, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 11, 2020 The Fed Didn’t Ease More...Is That a Missed Opportunity? by Eric Winograd The Fed gave its updated economic outlook this week, but not the additional policy support markets were looking for. We think this was a misstep...but one we hope will be corrected if the outlook doesn’t improve. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, Low-Yield Environment Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 04, 2020 Can the Coronavirus Crisis Bring Positive Change to Emerging Markets? by Adriaan du Toit Emerging markets (EM) are at a crossroads. The impact of COVID-19 aggravates pre-existing challenges. But it also enables those EM economies that respond effectively to create better conditions for the future. Coronavirus, Economics, Emerging Markets Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 21, 2020 How Will the Coronavirus Change the Role of Central Banks? by Darren Williams COVID-19 has supplied the catalyst for a secular change in the role of central banks. Providing governments with ammunition to fight the virus is now the overriding goal, and this means keeping bond yields pinned close to zero for the foreseeable future. Coronavirus, Economics, Low-Yield Environment Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 18, 2020 The Market and Negative US Rates: Right Idea, Wrong Tool by Eric Winograd The Fed continues to dismiss the idea of negative US rates but the market keeps pricing them in. We don’t expect negative rates: in our view, the market is using them as a proxy for Fed measures that may be needed but aren’t yet identified. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, Low-Yield Environment, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 14, 2020 What We Can Learn from China’s Rapid Normalization by Mo Ji China is further along the coronavirus curve than much of the rest of the world. What does its path to normal look like, and what are the big unknowns? China, Coronavirus, Economics, Emerging Markets, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks