May 04, 2021 What Could US Corporate Tax Hikes Mean for Share Buybacks? by Eric Winograd Some market analysts are worried that proposed tax hikes on corporations could dampen business investment and economic growth. Based on the experience of the 2017 corporate tax cut, we think the bigger impact will likely fall on share buybacks—not economic activity. Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 29, 2021 Will Household Savings Provide an Upside Growth Surprise? by Darren Williams Developed-market household savings recorded a significant gain last year, with an increase equivalent to 10% of combined GDP. Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 19, 2021 How Far Will the ECB Let Bond Yields Rise? by Darren Williams The ECB’s reaction function has become increasingly vague, almost deliberately so. But one thing is certain: it will continue to push back against any near-term increase in bond yields. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Low-Yield Environment, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 09, 2021 Four Things Investors Should Know About US Inflation in 2021 by Eric Winograd We expect US core inflation to surge in the months ahead, as comparisons to low price levels of a year ago cause sizable fluctuations. Ultimately, supply should respond to recovering demand, bringing inflation down and facilitating easy Fed policy. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 05, 2021 Crisis Dashboard: Big Data Helps Paint the Big Picture (March Update) by Jonathan Berkow, Scott Krauthamer As investors look for signs of a return to normalcy from the coronavirus crisis, they have a dizzying array of indicators to choose from. We’ve assembled a group of signals, with the help of big data, that may point the way. Coronavirus, Economics, Equities, Fixed Income Likes 2 SHARE Bookmarks
February 26, 2021 How Much Further Will US Rates Rise? by Eric Winograd US Treasury yields have surged, buoyed by optimism about economic growth and rising inflation expectations. We think the Fed will push against rates rising too far, too fast. Economics, Fixed Income, Low-Yield Environment, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 25, 2021 Can Mario Draghi Recharge Italy’s Economy? by Darren Williams, Nicholas Sanders Italy’s new prime minister, Mario Draghi, has a well-earned reputation for turning around difficult situations. But can he reverse Italy’s relative economic decline? And what does his program mean for Italian bond yields? Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 01, 2021 Better Stimulus Odds Are Shot in the Arm for US Growth Expectations by Eric Winograd The probability of more fiscal relief from Congress has risen—good news for the US economy and a boost to our growth forecast. While risks remain, and it’s too early to talk about the pandemic in the past tense, we’re optimistic the economy can return to more normal footing soon. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 04, 2020 A Road Map to the Coming US Economic Cycle by Eric Winograd With a greater level of clarity than we’ve had since the COVID-19 pandemic, we’re getting a better sense of how the US economy might shape up over the next few months, into 2022 and beyond. We see three distinct stages over that time frame. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Low-Yield Environment Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 27, 2020 Will 2021 Mark the Launch of a Durable Global Recovery? by Darren Williams After a difficult winter, we expect the global economy to rebound strongly next year. But structural headwinds remain. Will the post-pandemic bounce trigger a durable and broad-based global reflation? Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, Low-Yield Environment Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 17, 2020 Will US-China Relations Shift Under Biden? China Seems to Think So by Mo Ji Consensus appears to be forming among Chinese policymakers that the US-China relationship will change under a Biden administration. We touch on seven expectations. China, Economics, Fixed Income, Trade Wars, US Election Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 10, 2020 Elections? Vaccines? What They Could Mean for the US Economy by Eric Winograd Two recent developments could have big implications for the US economic outlook: general elections and news of very promising progress on a COVID-19 vaccine. To understand the ramifications, we have to distinguish near term from longer term. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, US Election Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 04, 2020 Is There Light at the End of the COVID-19 Tunnel for the Euro Area? by Darren Williams A fresh round of lockdowns means a difficult winter lies ahead for the euro area. But three factors caution against excessive pessimism. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks