September 16, 2019 The Fed Has More in Its Policy Tool Kit Than You Might Think by Eric Winograd With the global economy facing stronger headwinds, we’ve reduced our global growth and interest-rate expectations. But the US Federal Reserve has a variety of policy tools it could use—some unconventional—that we think will help the US economy hold up better than some of its peers. Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
September 16, 2019 Evaluating Challenges to the Global Economic Outlook by Darren Williams The global economy faces its most challenging year in over a decade. Policymakers still have options, but can they use them effectively? Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 21, 2019 Are Distressed Small Banks Putting China’s Banking System at Risk? by Hua Cheng It’s been 20 years since a Chinese bank failed. But recent bailouts of three regional lenders have raised concerns about systemic problems in China’s financial sector. While risks have grown for China’s smaller banks, we believe that the Chinese banking system remains robust. Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 07, 2019 China’s Currency Weakness: Not as Bad as it Seems—Yet by Mo Ji China’s currency depreciated this week, with the exchange rate rising to more than 7.0 renminbi per US dollar, unnerving investors and markets worldwide. Here’s the good news: we don’t think the renminbi will continue to weaken at the same pace. Currency, Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 05, 2019 Is a New Front About to Open in the US-China Trade War? by Eric Winograd Financial markets are focused on the ongoing trade war between the US and China—which goods and services are in play and what measures are being taken or threatened in each case. But the trade conflict could spill over into currency markets—and that’s a risk that bears watching. Currency, Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 30, 2019 Rising Risk of No-Deal Brexit by Darren Williams With the pound sliding to two-year lows, currency markets are signalling a higher probability of a no-deal Brexit. But the fallout from no deal would hurt the rest of Europe, too, and add to downward pressure on euro-area bond yields. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 25, 2019 Will Easy Monetary Policy Keep the Global Economy Afloat? by Darren Williams Global markets have taken heart from a truce in the trade war and signs of yet more monetary-policy stimulus. Easy money may well give a short-term lift to asset prices, but longer-term prospects look more challenging, especially for Europe. Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 01, 2019 India: The New China for Global Growth? by Mo Ji, Shamaila Khan If demographics is destiny, then India may well be the next China in terms of economic growth. Yes, the two countries have significant differences, but they also have some interesting parallels. What’s holding India back, and what will help most to unlock its future growth potential? Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 20, 2019 Fed Looking for an Ounce of Prevention with Rate Cuts by Eric Winograd The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged this week, but also signaled a very high probability of cuts later this year. Historically, rate cuts have been a sign of trouble—typically made in response to slower growth and rising unemployment. But this time around, growth data aren’t showing much weakness. What’s the story? Economics, Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 13, 2019 ECB Struggles as Central Banking World Turns Upside-Down by Darren Williams As global growth prospects have weakened, the world of central banking has been turned upside-down. But while the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has already hinted at a change of course, the European Central Bank (ECB) is still struggling to adapt to the new reality. Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 10, 2019 Hard Landing for China’s Growth? Six Factors to Watch by Mo Ji, Shamaila Khan Will China’s economy suffer a hard landing? That’s been a concern voiced by investors almost every year for the past 10 years. But now, with China’s incredible increase in debt and leverage (not to mention escalating trade wars), the possibility of a hard landing would have critical implications for all global markets. Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 06, 2019 Trade Wars Likely to Change the Fed’s Interest-Rate Game Plan by Eric Winograd The trade war has taken a harsher turn, threatening to further dampen economic growth. We expect the Fed to respond with sizable rate cuts, but the timing and amounts are more speculative than normal. Why? Economic data haven’t yet taken a major downward turn, and there’s uncertainty over how the Fed will react. Economics, Fixed Income, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 04, 2019 What’s Up (or Down) with the Fed’s Balance Sheet by Eric Winograd The US central bank recently said it would not shrink its balance sheet by as much as many investors had feared. Here’s why—and why it matters. Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks