July 26, 2021 Brace (But Not Too Much) for the CPI Roller-Coaster by Guy Bruten Second-quarter Australian CPI could be much higher than expected. Coming on top of the country’s strong economic performance and talk among some central banks about “normalising” policy, the news could unsettle investors. But we don’t think they need to worry—or, at least, not just yet. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 23, 2021 This Too Shall Pass: The Micro Case for Transitory Inflation by Susan Hutman, Robert Hopper, Eric Winograd The macroeconomic picture suggests the recent uptick in US inflation is temporary. But is it? We dig into the micro data that makes the case. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 15, 2021 Post-Pandemic Policymaking Could Drive Emerging Markets Apart by Adriaan du Toit Slow vaccine rollouts threaten not only to take a sizable human toll but also to scar some emerging economies. Coronavirus, Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 03, 2021 Crisis Dashboard: Big Data Helps Paint the Big Picture (June Update) by Jonathan Berkow, Scott Krauthamer As investors look for signs of a return to normalcy from the coronavirus crisis, they have a dizzying array of indicators to choose from. We’ve assembled a group of signals, with the help of big data, that may point the way. Coronavirus, Economics, Equities, Fixed Income Likes 2 SHARE Bookmarks
May 27, 2021 The Fed Will Likely Taper…but Don’t Expect a Tantrum by Eric Winograd Investors have begun to speculate about when the Fed will start tapering its quantitative easing (QE) asset purchases—we think later this year. But officials have learned from their past mistakes and will likely take steps to avoid a repeat of 2013’s “taper tantrum.” Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 11, 2021 Back to Business: Spending Surge Signals Demand by Karen Watkin, David Hutchins Global indicators continue to signal a sharp business recovery from last year’s COVID-19 pandemic lows. While inflation expectations are increasing as a result, business improvements offer multi-asset investors good reasons to remain tilted to equities for the next stage of the recovery. Coronavirus, Economics, Inflation, Multi-Asset Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 11, 2021 Will COVID-19 Accelerate Euro-Area Integration? by Darren Williams, Nicholas Sanders The political response to the COVID-19 crisis may be positive for the European integration project—and for euro-area bond markets. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, Low-Yield Environment Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 04, 2021 What Could US Corporate Tax Hikes Mean for Share Buybacks? by Eric Winograd Some market analysts are worried that proposed tax hikes on corporations could dampen business investment and economic growth. Based on the experience of the 2017 corporate tax cut, we think the bigger impact will likely fall on share buybacks—not economic activity. Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 29, 2021 Will Household Savings Provide an Upside Growth Surprise? by Darren Williams Developed-market household savings recorded a significant gain last year, with an increase equivalent to 10% of combined GDP. Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 19, 2021 How Far Will the ECB Let Bond Yields Rise? by Darren Williams The ECB’s reaction function has become increasingly vague, almost deliberately so. But one thing is certain: it will continue to push back against any near-term increase in bond yields. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Low-Yield Environment, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 09, 2021 Four Things Investors Should Know About US Inflation in 2021 by Eric Winograd We expect US core inflation to surge in the months ahead, as comparisons to low price levels of a year ago cause sizable fluctuations. Ultimately, supply should respond to recovering demand, bringing inflation down and facilitating easy Fed policy. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 26, 2021 How Much Further Will US Rates Rise? by Eric Winograd US Treasury yields have surged, buoyed by optimism about economic growth and rising inflation expectations. We think the Fed will push against rates rising too far, too fast. Economics, Fixed Income, Low-Yield Environment, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 25, 2021 Can Mario Draghi Recharge Italy’s Economy? by Darren Williams, Nicholas Sanders Italy’s new prime minister, Mario Draghi, has a well-earned reputation for turning around difficult situations. But can he reverse Italy’s relative economic decline? And what does his program mean for Italian bond yields? Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks