August 15, 2018 Will Chinese Renminbi Destabilize Markets as Trade Wars Escalate? by Mo Ji The trade war between Washington and Beijing has tipped China’s currency onto a path of destabilization. If hostilities escalate, China may let its renminbi (RMB) fall further. For investors, that could mean more volatility and tighter financial conditions. Currency, Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 14, 2018 Inverted US Yield Curve? Recession? Not So Fast by Eric Winograd Many investors have started to scrutinize the shape of the US Treasury yield curve, worried that a potential yield-curve inversion would mean imminent recession. In our view, things aren’t that simple. Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 14, 2018 Under Siege: How Trade Wars Affect the World’s Major Automakers by Douglas J. Peebles, Robert Schwartz From steel to engines to whole cars, tariffs are shifting the playing field for automakers. Our credit analysis suggests there are no winners in this war: consumers should expect higher sticker prices, companies lower earnings and investors more volatility. Economics, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 17, 2018 Can the US Economy Weather the Trade Wars? by Eric Winograd Aluminum. Cars. Solar panels. It’s hard to track the tariffs without a scorecard. As headlines continue to swirl, many investors worry about the impact on the US economy. Clearly, tariffs and trade wars hurt growth, but we don’t think the impact will be big enough to derail the economy just yet. Economics, Policy & Regulation, Trade Wars Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
July 09, 2018 Global Cyclical Outlook: The Cycle Matures As the global economic cycle moves into a more mature stage, monetary policy is becoming generally less accommodative and inflation risk is up. Meanwhile, geopolitical risk has become a fixture of the global landscape. What does all this mean for our outlook at the midway point of 2018? Economics Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
June 26, 2018 Dangerous Yield Curves Ahead? by Erin Bigley There’s new rumblings about an inverting yield curve ahead. Is it time to panic? Time to stick our heads in the sand? Or time to think sensibly? Economics, Fixed Income Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
May 17, 2018 Markets Unfazed by Rising Risk of Populism in Italy…for Now by Darren Williams While Italy’s bond yields have risen, investors have so far reacted relatively calmly to the rising probability of a populist Italian government. Based on the fundamentals, the potential downside scenario looms larger than markets seem willing to consider. Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 03, 2018 The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: Three Reasons US Rates are Going Up by Eric Winograd The US Federal Reserve decided against an official short-term rate hike at this week’s meeting—hardly a surprise. But US Treasury yields continue to climb in 2018, and not all the explanations are good news. Economics, Rising Rates Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
March 23, 2018 Will Geopolitics Fuel Global Volatility? by Darren Williams Economic trends clearly point toward higher inflation and interest rates ahead, which will likely make capital markets more volatile. Based on recent headlines, politics seems likely to add fuel to this fire. Economics, Rising Rates, Volatility Likes 2 SHARE Bookmarks
March 23, 2018 High Stakes: Why Trade Policy Matters by Eric Winograd Steel and aluminum tariffs aren’t a big deal for the US economy. But they may be for US trading partners and global growth. Focus on the trade shortfall also obscures a bigger concern: the US fiscal deficit. Economics, Policy & Regulation, Trade Wars Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
March 22, 2018 Can Investors Make Money in a US–China Trade War? by Stuart Rae, John Lin President Trump’s plans for tariffs on about $60 billion of Chinese imports have rattled equity markets. Investors should begin to study which types of industries, countries and companies could win or lose if an all-out trade war erupts. Economics, Emerging Markets, Equities, Trade Wars Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
March 20, 2018 Where Will the Fed’s Rate-Hike Cycle End? by Eric Winograd There’s not much suspense around this week’s Fed meeting: the fed funds target rate is almost certain to rise by 25 basis points. We think it’s more important not to overlook this cycle’s endgame. Economics, Inflation, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 15, 2018 US Inflation: Signs Are Pointing Up by Eric Winograd Market volatility has spiked recently, driven largely by growing concerns about rising inflation and interest rates. We think the volatility is exaggerated, but we’re not surprised inflation is rising—and rates along with it. Economics, Inflation, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks