March 18, 2019 Brexit: Is the Show that Never Ends About to Enter Another Act? by Darren Williams Nearly three years after the UK voted to leave the European Union (EU), the deadline for Brexit is less than two weeks away and the British government is asking for more time. While it’s easy to be distracted by the ongoing chaos in Parliament, it’s important to maintain a steady focus on the underlying parameters of the debate and the range of possible outcomes. These have shifted less than might be imagined. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 27, 2019 The Long View: China—The Indispensable Nation? by Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd A generation ago, China had little influence beyond its borders. Today, its importance to the world economy rivals the United States’. China’s role in markets is growing, too: in April, it will join a major global bond index. The future may bring a freely traded Chinese yuan and a challenge to the US dollar. Currency, Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 22, 2019 Five Reasons Europe Should Avoid Recession in 2019 by Darren Williams The euro area faces another challenging year, but we see a continuation of recent soft growth as much more likely than recession. The European Central Bank (ECB) is, nonetheless, now likely to delay its first rate hike to 2020, and could also implement fresh credit-easing measures. Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 20, 2019 The Long View: Is Tech Helping or Hurting? by Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd Is the technological revolution making us more productive? Are we measuring productivity properly? And what does it all mean for monetary policy and countries’ growth potential? Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 13, 2019 The Long View: The Problem with Populism by Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd Populist, anti-establishment policies will be with us for a while because the conditions that inspire them, such as rising inequality and stagnant incomes, will, too. That has long-term implications for inflation and global growth that investors cannot ignore. Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 06, 2019 The Long View: Debt and Demographics by Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd Countries and companies have been on a borrowing binge even as the growth of the working-age population in many parts of the world slows. Is a prolonged period of low growth and low inflation in our future? Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 01, 2019 Latest Jobs Data Show a Robust US Labor Market by Eric Winograd The government shutdown and temporary displacement of some workers didn’t cause the strong US labor market to miss a beat. Today’s jobs report reinforces that gains have been accelerating. That’s good news for the economy and markets. Economics, Equities, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 31, 2019 Is It Time for the Fed to Ditch the Dot Plot? by Eric Winograd The magnitude of recent market reactions to the Fed’s comments makes it clear that communication between the Fed and markets isn’t working: the market is too focused on the Fed—and not enough on the economy. One solution? The Fed should stop giving forward guidance about rates—and eliminate the “dot plot.” Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 23, 2019 Nigeria and South Africa: Will Elections Bring Change for Investors? by Adriaan du Toit Africa’s two largest economies will hold elections this year, and there’s a good chance the outcomes will lead to slightly faster growth and higher asset prices. But rising populism and nationalism remain a longer-term risk. Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 17, 2019 US Government Shutdown—Dimensioning the Economic Effects by Eric Winograd The US government shutdown is almost four weeks old, and there’s no sign that the standoff will be resolved anytime soon. How much has the shutdown impacted—and how much will it impact—economic growth? That depends on how long it lasts. Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 17, 2019 Populism Is Alive and Well: What’s the Big-Picture Impact? by Guy Bruten It’s been two years since our initial research on populism, and populist-inspired policies continue to advance today on multiple fronts. As we see it, investors should expect more of the same ahead—influencing everything from global economic growth and inflation to policies directed specifically at the corporate sector. Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 14, 2019 2019 Elections in Scope: Nigeria & South Africa by Adriaan du Toit The two biggest economies in Africa—Nigeria and South Africa—both have presidential elections in 2019. The results will set the stage for the next phase of these economies as well as investor interest in them. These elections could also have implications for the economic future throughout the continent. Economics, Emerging Markets, Equities, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 09, 2019 Fixed-Income Outlook: Three Themes We’re Watching in 2019 by Douglas J. Peebles The past year was a rough ride for bond investors. Will 2019 deliver more of the same? Economics, Fixed Income, Rising Rates, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks