January 23, 2020 Will the Wuhan Coronavirus Infect China’s Economy? by Mo Ji A virus is spreading across China, causing disruption, severe illness and even death. In addition to the tragic human cost of an epidemic, widespread disease can cause significant macroeconomic damage. We estimate the potential impact of the Wuhan coronavirus on China’s GDP growth. China, Coronavirus, Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 16, 2020 The Phase-One US-China Trade Agreement: Cease-Fire, Not Peace Treaty by Eric Winograd The US and China formally signed a phase-one trade deal Wednesday after several months of negotiations. We see the deal as a near-term positive for markets—but it also leaves the thorniest issues between the two countries unresolved. China, Economics, Fixed Income, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 17, 2019 Investing in Chinese Stocks After the Trade Truce by John Lin, Stuart Rae Now that the US and China have agreed to begin easing trade tensions, the fog over China’s markets is starting to lift. Investors should consider Chinese equity opportunities that have been overlooked because of tariff fears. China, Emerging Markets, Equities, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 19, 2019 Chinese Stocks Poised for Bigger Role on Global Market Stage by John Lin, Stuart Rae China is the world’s second-largest economy, but its equities are underrepresented in market indices and portfolios worldwide. With a growing stock market capitalization—and more inflows expected from greater index inclusion—foreign investors should take a closer look. China, Emerging Markets, Equities Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
October 02, 2019 Is the Trade War a Blessing in Disguise for China’s Tech Sector? by John Lin, Stuart Rae, Min Zhou Complex ties between US and Chinese technology sectors are being tested by trade war tensions. But some steps taken by the US against Chinese multinational giant Huawei Technologies could backfire and spark a new phase of development for the Chinese technology sector. China, Equities, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 21, 2019 Are Distressed Small Banks Putting China’s Banking System at Risk? by Hua Cheng It’s been 20 years since a Chinese bank failed. But recent bailouts of three regional lenders have raised concerns about systemic problems in China’s financial sector. While risks have grown for China’s smaller banks, we believe that the Chinese banking system remains robust. China, Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 07, 2019 China’s Currency Weakness: Not as Bad as it Seems—Yet by Mo Ji China’s currency depreciated this week, with the exchange rate rising to more than 7.0 renminbi per US dollar, unnerving investors and markets worldwide. Here’s the good news: we don’t think the renminbi will continue to weaken at the same pace. China, Currency, Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 05, 2019 Is a New Front About to Open in the US-China Trade War? by Eric Winograd Financial markets are focused on the ongoing trade war between the US and China—which goods and services are in play and what measures are being taken or threatened in each case. But the trade conflict could spill over into currency markets—and that’s a risk that bears watching. China, Currency, Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 10, 2019 Hard Landing for China’s Growth? Six Factors to Watch by Mo Ji, Shamaila Khan Will China’s economy suffer a hard landing? That’s been a concern voiced by investors almost every year for the past 10 years. But now, with China’s incredible increase in debt and leverage (not to mention escalating trade wars), the possibility of a hard landing would have critical implications for all global markets. China, Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 28, 2019 China and US: Tug of Trade War by Mo Ji, Shamaila Khan The latest spike in trade tensions between the US and China raises the stakes for the G20 meeting in late June. It also has some investors questioning how China will manage growth as well as fiscal and monetary policy to keep stability through these uncertain times. China, Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income, Trade Wars, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 20, 2019 Evaluating the Effects of China’s Pork Crisis by John Lin, Stuart Rae African swine fever is ravaging China’s pork supply and having a global impact on protein prices. For equity investors, the crisis serves as a reminder that even amid trade-war uncertainty, research into domestic trends can help investors access the country’s vast stock market. China, Equities Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 16, 2019 Postcard from...China by John Lin Last October, we travelled to Wuhu in the eastern Anhui province, about 350 kilometers from Shanghai. When we woke up and looked out the hotel window, the thick gray smog that covered the city provided a potent reminder of one of China's most vexing problems: air pollution. China, Equities, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 28, 2019 Avoid the Crowds in Chinese Stocks by John Lin, Stuart Rae After MSCI decided today to boost the allocation to Chinese onshore stocks in its emerging-market indices, global investors are likely to pump more money into the market. But watch out for crowds. Flows into China are concentrated in a small group of large-cap stocks. China, Equities Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks