July 30, 2019 Rising Risk of No-Deal Brexit by Darren Williams With the pound sliding to two-year lows, currency markets are signalling a higher probability of a no-deal Brexit. But the fallout from no deal would hurt the rest of Europe, too, and add to downward pressure on euro-area bond yields. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 31, 2019 Brexit Update: New Developments Raise “No Deal” Risks by Darren Williams Two important political developments in the UK over the last week have raised new questions about the Brexit outlook. While there’s still time for a compromise to be reached, we think the risk of the UK leaving the EU without a deal has increased. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 07, 2019 Beat the Warning Lights: Managing Risk in European Equities by Tawhid Ali, Andrew Birse Investors often ask how it’s possible to allocate capital to European stocks given the political risks that abound. We think the answer is to combine disciplined stock picking with risk-management tools that look for unintended threats to a portfolio. Brexit, Equities, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 11, 2019 Brexit Extension: It’s Progress, but Not as We Know It by Darren Williams The European Union has given Britain seven more months to sort out its exit plans. While the chaos of a disorderly Brexit has been averted for now, we think the compromise could have some unintended consequences. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 25, 2019 Beyond the Brexit Trees, Is There Light in the EU Wood? by John Taylor Now that the UK has avoided (at least for now) a hard Brexit as it negotiates to extend Article 50, investors might reasonably wonder whether they can relax for a moment and take stock of the bigger picture. What sort of longer-term future does the European Union (EU) have, irrespective of the UK? Brexit, Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 18, 2019 Brexit: Is the Show that Never Ends About to Enter Another Act? by Darren Williams Nearly three years after the UK voted to leave the European Union (EU), the deadline for Brexit is less than two weeks away and the British government is asking for more time. While it’s easy to be distracted by the ongoing chaos in Parliament, it’s important to maintain a steady focus on the underlying parameters of the debate and the range of possible outcomes. These have shifted less than might be imagined. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 16, 2019 Brexit and Beyond: Investing in Europe amid Political Risk by Tawhid Ali, Andrew Birse With Brexit headlines dominating the European news, equity investors face an ongoing challenge. Building resilient portfolios requires a clear view of the long-term outlook for European companies that also reflects major short-term political uncertainties. Brexit, Equities Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 15, 2018 Is the New Brexit Deal Already Dead? by Darren Williams With cabinet ministers resigning by the hour, it’s tempting to think that British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the European Union (EU) is dead on arrival, and that a hard Brexit is now the most likely way forward. But some form of soft Brexit is still the most likely scenario, in our view. Brexit, Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
June 09, 2017 UK Election Result Compounds Brexit Uncertainty by Darren Williams Britain’s election has produced a messy result, with no party securing an outright majority. The hung parliament adds further uncertainty to Brexit talks with the European Union, though it probably won’t affect the UK’s short-term economic outlook. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 29, 2017 Are Bond Investors Ready for a World Without QE? by John Taylor Britain’s decision to start its divorce from the EU and France’s looming presidential election are injecting political risk back into markets. Bond investors are braced for political volatility. But are they ready for big monetary policy changes? Brexit, Economics, Fixed Income, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 29, 2017 Brexit Begins: What Next After Article 50? by Darren Williams Britain’s divorce from the EU is under way, but the complex negotiating process has just begun. We believe a mutually beneficial deal can be reached—as long as both sides focus on the risks of failure. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
October 25, 2016 Bond Lessons from Brexit...and Other Cautionary Tales by John Taylor How will bond portfolios react if the US election triggers further market mayhem? Fallout from Brexit taught us valuable lessons about extreme market shocks. Brexit, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 29, 2016 Three Reasons Not to Boot Your Bonds After Brexit by Paul DeNoon, Scott DiMaggio, Gershon Distenfeld There was a great deal of uncertainty in the lead-up to Thursday’s referendum on Brexit, and there’s been nearly as much in the days following. As the dust settles, we offer three reasons you shouldn’t “exit” your bond portfolios. Brexit, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks