February 05, 2020 Brexit: It Ain’t Over till It’s Over by Darren Williams At 11 p.m. GMT on Friday 31st January, the UK formally left the European Union. Thank goodness for that, many will say. Unfortunately, it isn’t quite that simple, as the UK and the EU still need to reach agreement on the shape of their future trading relationship. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 06, 2020 How Will Trade Wars and Populism Play Out? by Darren Williams, Guy Bruten Brexit, US–China trade tensions, elections around the world—these issues are linked to much deeper, longer running populist trends which aren’t going away any time soon. These and other populist concerns will contribute for some time to the slow-growth environment we’re in now. Brexit, Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 16, 2019 Now Boris Can Get Brexit Done—But How? by Darren Williams After a decisive victory in the UK’s general election, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has a strong mandate to “get Brexit done.” But the eventual shape of his Brexit deal is still far from clear. Brexit Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 20, 2019 Can the UK General Election End Brexit Uncertainty? by Darren Williams The UK faces a pivotal election. But while this may end the stalemate between the UK’s lawmakers, the eventual fate of Brexit is still uncertain, in our view. Brexit Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
October 02, 2019 Is The Brexit End Game Finally In Sight? by Darren Williams The battle for Brexit has undermined traditional political affiliations and triggered changes in the UK’s constitutional order that could affect future governability. We may now be approaching the end game, though the outcome might not be the one markets are counting on. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 30, 2019 Rising Risk of No-Deal Brexit by Darren Williams With the pound sliding to two-year lows, currency markets are signalling a higher probability of a no-deal Brexit. But the fallout from no deal would hurt the rest of Europe, too, and add to downward pressure on euro-area bond yields. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 31, 2019 Brexit Update: New Developments Raise “No Deal” Risks by Darren Williams Two important political developments in the UK over the last week have raised new questions about the Brexit outlook. While there’s still time for a compromise to be reached, we think the risk of the UK leaving the EU without a deal has increased. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 07, 2019 Beat the Warning Lights: Managing Risk in European Equities by Tawhid Ali, Andrew Birse Investors often ask how it’s possible to allocate capital to European stocks given the political risks that abound. We think the answer is to combine disciplined stock picking with risk-management tools that look for unintended threats to a portfolio. Brexit, Equities, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 11, 2019 Brexit Extension: It’s Progress, but Not as We Know It by Darren Williams The European Union has given Britain seven more months to sort out its exit plans. While the chaos of a disorderly Brexit has been averted for now, we think the compromise could have some unintended consequences. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 25, 2019 Beyond the Brexit Trees, Is There Light in the EU Wood? by John Taylor Now that the UK has avoided (at least for now) a hard Brexit as it negotiates to extend Article 50, investors might reasonably wonder whether they can relax for a moment and take stock of the bigger picture. What sort of longer-term future does the European Union (EU) have, irrespective of the UK? Brexit, Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 18, 2019 Brexit: Is the Show that Never Ends About to Enter Another Act? by Darren Williams Nearly three years after the UK voted to leave the European Union (EU), the deadline for Brexit is less than two weeks away and the British government is asking for more time. While it’s easy to be distracted by the ongoing chaos in Parliament, it’s important to maintain a steady focus on the underlying parameters of the debate and the range of possible outcomes. These have shifted less than might be imagined. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 16, 2019 Brexit and Beyond: Investing in Europe amid Political Risk by Tawhid Ali, Andrew Birse With Brexit headlines dominating the European news, equity investors face an ongoing challenge. Building resilient portfolios requires a clear view of the long-term outlook for European companies that also reflects major short-term political uncertainties. Brexit, Equities Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 15, 2018 Is the New Brexit Deal Already Dead? by Darren Williams With cabinet ministers resigning by the hour, it’s tempting to think that British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the European Union (EU) is dead on arrival, and that a hard Brexit is now the most likely way forward. But some form of soft Brexit is still the most likely scenario, in our view. Brexit, Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks