June 02, 2020 What We Can Learn from China’s Rapid Normalization by Mo Ji China is further along the coronavirus curve than much of the rest of the world. What does its path to normal look like, and what are the big unknowns? China, Coronavirus, Economics, Emerging Markets, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 01, 2020 Why Have Chinese Stocks Held Up So Well? by John Lin, Stuart Rae Chinese stocks have been resilient this year because of relatively modest earnings downgrades amid an early recovery from the virus-induced shock. China, Coronavirus, Trade Wars, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 27, 2020 Preparing Chinese Holdings for Potential US Action by John Lin, Stuart Rae Tensions between the US and China are flaring up again. With pressure mounting on Chinese stocks listed in the US, including those widely held in emerging-market portfolios, investors need to consider how to prepare for the mounting risks. China, Coronavirus, Emerging Markets, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 24, 2020 Is Vietnam Ready to Fill China’s Supply Chain Gaps? by Min Zhou, Vivian Chen Postcard from Vietnam: On a research trip to Vietnam before the coronavirus crisis, our analysts discovered what it takes for manufacturers to outsource successfully. Coronavirus, Emerging Markets, Equities, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 27, 2020 What If [Insert Geopolitical Headline of the Moment] Sinks the Market? by Alexander Chaloff, Beata Kirr Trade wars. Super viruses. Nuclear missile tests. Elections. Uprisings. We are often asked about the impact of events such as these on the market, so we looked back at a long list of geopolitical events to ascertain their impact. Coronavirus, Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 16, 2020 The Phase-One US-China Trade Agreement: Cease-Fire, Not Peace Treaty by Eric Winograd The US and China formally signed a phase-one trade deal Wednesday after several months of negotiations. We see the deal as a near-term positive for markets—but it also leaves the thorniest issues between the two countries unresolved. China, Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 10, 2020 Fixed Income Outlook: Keep an Eye on Systemic Risks in 2020 by Scott DiMaggio, Gershon Distenfeld With bond yields near record lows, can fixed-income markets generate solid returns in 2020 without forcing investors to take too much risk? From a fraught geopolitical landscape to a global slowdown, we assess today’s biggest challenges—and opportunities. Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle, Trade Wars, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 17, 2019 Investing in Chinese Stocks After the Trade Truce by John Lin, Stuart Rae Now that the US and China have agreed to begin easing trade tensions, the fog over China’s markets is starting to lift. Investors should consider Chinese equity opportunities that have been overlooked because of tariff fears. China, Emerging Markets, Equities, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
October 02, 2019 The Trade War Could Be a Blessing in Disguise for China’s Tech Sector by John Lin, Stuart Rae, Min Zhou Complex ties between US and Chinese technology sectors are being tested by trade war tensions. But some steps taken by the US against Chinese multinational giant Huawei Technologies could backfire and spark a new phase of development for the Chinese technology sector. Equities, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 14, 2019 Why Today’s Inverted Yield Curve Isn’t Necessarily a Recession Warning by Erin Bigley, Chris Marx The most closely watched part of the US yield curve inverted this week for this first time since 2007, suggesting that a recession may be around the corner. We’re not convinced that’s true. Active & Passive , Equities, Fixed Income, Trade Wars, Volatility Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
August 07, 2019 China’s Currency Weakness: Not as Bad as it Seems—Yet by Mo Ji China’s currency depreciated this week, with the exchange rate rising to more than 7.0 renminbi per US dollar, unnerving investors and markets worldwide. Here’s the good news: we don’t think the renminbi will continue to weaken at the same pace. China, Currency, Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 05, 2019 Is a New Front About to Open in the US-China Trade War? by Eric Winograd Financial markets are focused on the ongoing trade war between the US and China—which goods and services are in play and what measures are being taken or threatened in each case. But the trade conflict could spill over into currency markets—and that’s a risk that bears watching. China, Currency, Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 01, 2019 The X’s and O’s of Tariff Management by Matthew D. Palazzolo Despite seemingly constructive talks between the US and China over the weekend at the G20 Summit in Osaka, the threat of further trade escalation looms. The initial rounds of US tariffs on Chinese goods were focused mostly on industrial products. But, if the US proceeds with tariffs on “List 4”–the remaining $300 billion of Chinese goods not yet tariffed–consumers are likely to feel the effects. The reason? This next and final round places a 25% tariff on predominantly consumer goods like toys, apparel, sporting goods, and sneakers, among others. Capital Markets Outlook, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks