January 16, 2020 The Phase-One US-China Trade Agreement: Cease-Fire, Not Peace Treaty by Eric Winograd The US and China formally signed a phase-one trade deal Wednesday after several months of negotiations. We see the deal as a near-term positive for markets—but it also leaves the thorniest issues between the two countries unresolved. Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 10, 2020 Fixed Income Outlook: Keep an Eye on Systemic Risks in 2020 by Scott DiMaggio, Gershon Distenfeld With bond yields near record lows, can fixed-income markets generate solid returns in 2020 without forcing investors to take too much risk? From a fraught geopolitical landscape to a global slowdown, we assess today’s biggest challenges—and opportunities. Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle, Trade Wars, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 17, 2019 Investing in Chinese Stocks After the Trade Truce by John Lin, Stuart Rae Now that the US and China have agreed to begin easing trade tensions, the fog over China’s markets is starting to lift. Investors should consider Chinese equity opportunities that have been overlooked because of tariff fears. China, Emerging Markets, Equities, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
October 02, 2019 The Trade War Could Be a Blessing in Disguise for China’s Tech Sector by John Lin, Stuart Rae, Min Zhou Complex ties between US and Chinese technology sectors are being tested by trade war tensions. But some steps taken by the US against Chinese multinational giant Huawei Technologies could backfire and spark a new phase of development for the Chinese technology sector. Equities, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 14, 2019 Why Today’s Inverted Yield Curve Isn’t Necessarily a Recession Warning by Erin Bigley, Chris Marx The most closely watched part of the US yield curve inverted this week for this first time since 2007, suggesting that a recession may be around the corner. We’re not convinced that’s true. Active & Passive , Equities, Fixed Income, Trade Wars, Volatility Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
August 07, 2019 China’s Currency Weakness: Not as Bad as it Seems—Yet by Mo Ji China’s currency depreciated this week, with the exchange rate rising to more than 7.0 renminbi per US dollar, unnerving investors and markets worldwide. Here’s the good news: we don’t think the renminbi will continue to weaken at the same pace. China, Currency, Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 05, 2019 Is a New Front About to Open in the US-China Trade War? by Eric Winograd Financial markets are focused on the ongoing trade war between the US and China—which goods and services are in play and what measures are being taken or threatened in each case. But the trade conflict could spill over into currency markets—and that’s a risk that bears watching. China, Currency, Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 01, 2019 The X’s and O’s of Tariff Management by Matthew D. Palazzolo Despite seemingly constructive talks between the US and China over the weekend at the G20 Summit in Osaka, the threat of further trade escalation looms. The initial rounds of US tariffs on Chinese goods were focused mostly on industrial products. But, if the US proceeds with tariffs on “List 4”–the remaining $300 billion of Chinese goods not yet tariffed–consumers are likely to feel the effects. The reason? This next and final round places a 25% tariff on predominantly consumer goods like toys, apparel, sporting goods, and sneakers, among others. Capital Markets Outlook, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 06, 2019 Trade Wars Likely to Change the Fed’s Interest-Rate Game Plan by Eric Winograd The trade war has taken a harsher turn, threatening to further dampen economic growth. We expect the Fed to respond with sizable rate cuts, but the timing and amounts are more speculative than normal. Why? Economic data haven’t yet taken a major downward turn, and there’s uncertainty over how the Fed will react. Economics, Fixed Income, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 22, 2019 Emerging Markets: Widen Your Lens Beyond Trade Tensions by Morgan Harting The beauty of EM investing is you can find opportunities in stocks or bonds beyond the narrow focus of headlines. Emerging Markets, Trade Wars, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 13, 2018 Market Sell-Off Shows Risk Is a Moving Target by Kent Hargis, Sammy Suzuki, Chris Marx Recent volatility reminds us that new risks are testing standard defensive equity strategies. Portfolios that offer downside protection need to go beyond standard risk models and position themselves for changing challenges ranging from trade wars to European political instability. Equities, Trade Wars, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
October 02, 2018 NAFTA 2.0: A Bold New Beginning? Or a Modest Rewrite? by Eric Winograd The revised NAFTA deal relieves uncertainty for Canada and avoids a possible Mexican barrier to ratification. But what does it really mean for the three countries involved—or for trade tension with China? Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 27, 2018 Imbalance of Trade: What Trade Wars Mean for Market Stability by Douglas J. Peebles Reduced global trade may have the unintended consequence of strengthening the US dollar, raising interest rates and pushing down stock prices. Together with tighter Federal Reserve policy, these developments may increase market turbulence. Currency, Fixed Income, Trade Wars, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks