November 15, 2018 Is the New Brexit Deal Already Dead? by Darren Williams With cabinet ministers resigning by the hour, it’s tempting to think that British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the European Union (EU) is dead on arrival, and that a hard Brexit is now the most likely way forward. But some form of soft Brexit is still the most likely scenario, in our view. Economics, Policy & Regulation, Understanding Brexit Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
November 07, 2018 What Does a Divided US Congress Mean for the Economy and Markets? by Erin Bigley, Scott Krauthamer Democrats took the House of Representatives. Republicans held the Senate. What should investors expect from the US midterm election outcome? In the way of policy, not much. But the new political landscape may be good for markets. Economics, Equities, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
September 26, 2018 What the US Midterm Elections Mean for Policy and the Markets by Scott Krauthamer Will Democrats retake the House of Representatives in the US midterm elections this fall? Will it matter for your investment portfolio if they do? Probably not so much, although a Democratic sweep of both houses could be more disruptive. Equities, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 14, 2018 Under Siege: How Trade Wars Affect the World’s Major Automakers by Douglas J. Peebles, Robert Schwartz From steel to engines to whole cars, tariffs are shifting the playing field for automakers. Our credit analysis suggests there are no winners in this war: consumers should expect higher sticker prices, companies lower earnings and investors more volatility. Economics, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 17, 2018 Can the US Economy Weather the Trade Wars? by Eric Winograd Aluminum. Cars. Solar panels. It’s hard to track the tariffs without a scorecard. As headlines continue to swirl, many investors worry about the impact on the US economy. Clearly, tariffs and trade wars hurt growth, but we don’t think the impact will be big enough to derail the economy just yet. Economics, Policy & Regulation, Trade Wars Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
July 10, 2018 Supreme Court Decision Could Relieve Stress for Some States Thanks to the Supreme Court’s decision in South Dakota v. Wayfair, Inc., states can now choose to levy sales taxes on online transactions with no physical retail presence within the state. Our chart shows the potential impact on state budgets. Fixed Income, Municipals, Policy & Regulation Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
May 09, 2018 Will Real Change Result from New Regs? That’s Up to Investors On May 14, new MSRB regulations will require the disclosure of the often dramatic markups that retail investors are subject to when buying individual municipal bonds. Will this accelerate the shift into active municipal bond management? Active & Passive , Fixed Income, Municipals, Policy & Regulation Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
March 23, 2018 High Stakes: Why Trade Policy Matters by Eric Winograd Steel and aluminum tariffs aren’t a big deal for the US economy. But they may be for US trading partners and global growth. Focus on the trade shortfall also obscures a bigger concern: the US fiscal deficit. Economics, Policy & Regulation, Trade Wars Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
February 13, 2018 Why the US Government Should Guarantee Your Mortgages by Michael S. Canter, Janaki Rao Congress may finally be inching toward an overhaul of the US housing finance system. That’s good. But getting reform right is more important than getting it done. To us, that means ensuring the government retains a clearly defined role in the mortgage market. Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
November 27, 2017 Is New Zealand the Kiwi in Populism’s Coal Mine? by Guy Bruten, Scott DiMaggio Are recent populist moves in New Zealand an indicator of trouble ahead? Not for the Kiwis, in our view. But these developments could point to challenges in countries where populism has greater traction. Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
November 13, 2017 Tax Reform: Don’t Sweat the Details—Yet by Daryl Clements Changing the tax code is disruptive. Some of the proposals would affect the municipal bond market if they were to become law. But it’s far from certain they will. What should investors do? Keep their cool and see what develops. And we have one more piece of advice. Fixed Income, Municipals, Policy & Regulation, US Tax Reform Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
November 06, 2017 Why Tax Reform Is Better than Tax Cuts by Eric Winograd Comprehensive, revenue-neutral tax reform could give the US economy a boost. But tax cuts alone are more likely to lead to higher budget deficits than to increased growth. Economics, Policy & Regulation, US Tax Reform Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
October 31, 2017 Shadows of Tax Reform Loom over Municipals by Daryl Clements Now that talk of tax reform has taken center stage in Washington, the biggest concern for municipal investors is whether the upside of lower taxes could spell downside for their municipal bond valuations. The good news is that not every proposed change is likely to have a negative impact. Fixed Income, Municipals, Policy & Regulation, US Tax Reform Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks