November 15, 2018 Is the New Brexit Deal Already Dead? by Darren Williams With cabinet ministers resigning by the hour, it’s tempting to think that British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the European Union (EU) is dead on arrival, and that a hard Brexit is now the most likely way forward. But some form of soft Brexit is still the most likely scenario, in our view. Economics, Policy & Regulation, Understanding Brexit Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
November 07, 2018 What Does a Divided US Congress Mean for the Economy and Markets? by Erin Bigley, Scott Krauthamer Democrats took the House of Representatives. Republicans held the Senate. What should investors expect from the US midterm election outcome? In the way of policy, not much. But the new political landscape may be good for markets. Economics, Equities, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
November 01, 2018 Red Wave/Blue Wave? Thoughts on the US Election by Eric Winograd What might the US midterm election results mean for fiscal policy and financial markets? Probably not much if Democrats and Republicans end up splitting control of Congress. But a sweep by either party could lead to very different outcomes. Economics, Equities, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
October 02, 2018 NAFTA 2.0: A Bold New Beginning? Or a Modest Rewrite? by Eric Winograd The revised NAFTA deal relieves uncertainty for Canada and avoids a possible Mexican barrier to ratification. But what does it really mean for the three countries involved—or for trade tension with China? Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
September 27, 2018 The Fed’s on Auto-Pilot—For Now by Eric Winograd When it comes to the official US short-term interest rate, the Federal Reserve now appears to be on autopilot, with three more quarter-percentage-point increases likely by mid-2019. But after that, things should get more complicated. Economics, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
September 12, 2018 Emerging Markets: It’s Not All About Turkey by Sammy Suzuki Investors in emerging-market (EM) stocks have taken a big hit as Turkey’s crisis has escalated. But a closer look inside the EM benchmark suggests that the entire developing world isn’t broken. Economics, Emerging Markets, Equities Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 14, 2018 Inverted US Yield Curve? Recession? Not So Fast by Eric Winograd Many investors have started to scrutinize the shape of the US Treasury yield curve, worried that a potential yield-curve inversion would mean imminent recession. In our view, things aren’t that simple. Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 14, 2018 Under Siege: How Trade Wars Affect the World’s Major Automakers by Douglas J. Peebles, Robert Schwartz From steel to engines to whole cars, tariffs are shifting the playing field for automakers. Our credit analysis suggests there are no winners in this war: consumers should expect higher sticker prices, companies lower earnings and investors more volatility. Economics, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 17, 2018 Can the US Economy Weather the Trade Wars? by Eric Winograd Aluminum. Cars. Solar panels. It’s hard to track the tariffs without a scorecard. As headlines continue to swirl, many investors worry about the impact on the US economy. Clearly, tariffs and trade wars hurt growth, but we don’t think the impact will be big enough to derail the economy just yet. Economics, Policy & Regulation, Trade Wars Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
July 09, 2018 Global Cyclical Outlook: The Cycle Matures As the global economic cycle moves into a more mature stage, monetary policy is becoming generally less accommodative and inflation risk is up. Meanwhile, geopolitical risk has become a fixture of the global landscape. What does all this mean for our outlook at the midway point of 2018? Economics Likes 2 SHARE Bookmarks
June 26, 2018 Dangerous Yield Curves Ahead? by Erin Bigley There’s new rumblings about an inverting yield curve ahead. Is it time to panic? Time to stick our heads in the sand? Or time to think sensibly? Economics, Fixed Income, Rising Rates Likes 2 SHARE Bookmarks
May 17, 2018 Markets Unfazed by Rising Risk of Populism in Italy…for Now by Darren Williams While Italy’s bond yields have risen, investors have so far reacted relatively calmly to the rising probability of a populist Italian government. Based on the fundamentals, the potential downside scenario looms larger than markets seem willing to consider. Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 03, 2018 The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: Three Reasons US Rates Are Going Up by Eric Winograd The US Federal Reserve decided against an official short-term rate hike at this week’s meeting—hardly a surprise. But US Treasury yields continue to climb in 2018, and not all the explanations are good news. Economics, Rising Rates Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks