August 07, 2019 China’s Currency Weakness: Not as Bad as it Seems—Yet by Mo Ji China’s currency depreciated this week, with the exchange rate rising to more than 7.0 renminbi per US dollar, unnerving investors and markets worldwide. Here’s the good news: we don’t think the renminbi will continue to weaken at the same pace. Currency, Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 05, 2019 Is a New Front About to Open in the US-China Trade War? by Eric Winograd Financial markets are focused on the ongoing trade war between the US and China—which goods and services are in play and what measures are being taken or threatened in each case. But the trade conflict could spill over into currency markets—and that’s a risk that bears watching. Currency, Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 30, 2019 Rising Risk of No-Deal Brexit by Darren Williams With the pound sliding to two-year lows, currency markets are signalling a higher probability of a no-deal Brexit. But the fallout from no deal would hurt the rest of Europe, too, and add to downward pressure on euro-area bond yields. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 25, 2019 Will Easy Monetary Policy Keep the Global Economy Afloat? by Darren Williams Global markets have taken heart from a truce in the trade war and signs of yet more monetary-policy stimulus. Easy money may well give a short-term lift to asset prices, but longer-term prospects look more challenging, especially for Europe. Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 20, 2019 Fed Looking for an Ounce of Prevention with Rate Cuts by Eric Winograd The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged this week, but also signaled a very high probability of cuts later this year. Historically, rate cuts have been a sign of trouble—typically made in response to slower growth and rising unemployment. But this time around, growth data aren’t showing much weakness. What’s the story? Economics, Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 06, 2019 Trade Wars Likely to Change the Fed’s Interest-Rate Game Plan by Eric Winograd The trade war has taken a harsher turn, threatening to further dampen economic growth. We expect the Fed to respond with sizable rate cuts, but the timing and amounts are more speculative than normal. Why? Economic data haven’t yet taken a major downward turn, and there’s uncertainty over how the Fed will react. Economics, Fixed Income, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 04, 2019 What’s Up (or Down) with the Fed’s Balance Sheet by Eric Winograd The US central bank recently said it would not shrink its balance sheet by as much as many investors had feared. Here’s why—and why it matters. Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 31, 2019 Will Modern Monetary Theory Go Mainstream? by Eric Winograd Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has moved from the fringe to broader public discussion recently, fueling concern from some investors about growing debt levels. We don’t expect MMT to replace our current economic structure, but its populist-inspired underpinnings will likely have a sizable influence on policy. Capital Markets Outlook, Economics, Inflation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 31, 2019 Brexit Update: New Developments Raise “No Deal” Risks by Darren Williams Two important political developments in the UK over the last week have raised new questions about the Brexit outlook. While there’s still time for a compromise to be reached, we think the risk of the UK leaving the EU without a deal has increased. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 30, 2019 The Case of the Missing Inflation…and What the Fed’s Doing About It by Eric Winograd US inflation has been running low for some time, and key members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) are pointing a finger at the traditional policy framework. So rate hikes are on hold for the time being—and monetary policy is under the microscope. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 11, 2019 Brexit Extension: It’s Progress, but Not as We Know It by Darren Williams The European Union has given Britain seven more months to sort out its exit plans. While the chaos of a disorderly Brexit has been averted for now, we think the compromise could have some unintended consequences. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 08, 2019 Most Interesting Chart Right Now: Recession? Not So Fast by Matthew D. Palazzolo The current 10-year economic expansion is nearing the longest in US history. Based on age alone, many economists—roughly 50% of those recently surveyed—believe a recession is on the horizon. We think this conclusion is misguided. Economics, Wealth Planning Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 01, 2019 Top Five Questions on Your Mind by Matthew D. Palazzolo Thinking ahead to the remainder of 2019 and into 2020, we look at the most frequent questions we’ve been getting from our clients and how certain issues may play out over the foreseeable future. Here we discuss the top five questions on your mind. Capital Markets Outlook, Economics, Equities, Inflation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks