February 06, 2019 The Long View: Debt and Demographics by Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd Countries and companies have been on a borrowing binge even as the growth of the working-age population in many parts of the world slows. Is a prolonged period of low growth and low inflation in our future? Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 01, 2019 Latest Jobs Data Show a Robust US Labor Market by Eric Winograd The government shutdown and temporary displacement of some workers didn’t cause the strong US labor market to miss a beat. Today’s jobs report reinforces that gains have been accelerating. That’s good news for the economy and markets. Economics, Equities, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 01, 2019 Populism Is Alive and Well: What’s the Big-Picture Impact? by Guy Bruten It’s been two years since our initial research on populism, and populist-inspired policies continue to advance today on multiple fronts. As we see it, investors should expect more of the same ahead—influencing everything from global economic growth and inflation to policies directed specifically at the corporate sector. Capital Markets Outlook, Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 31, 2019 Is It Time for the Fed to Ditch the Dot Plot? by Eric Winograd The magnitude of recent market reactions to the Fed’s comments makes it clear that communication between the Fed and markets isn’t working: the market is too focused on the Fed—and not enough on the economy. One solution? The Fed should stop giving forward guidance about rates—and eliminate the “dot plot.” Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 23, 2019 Nigeria and South Africa: Will Elections Bring Change for Investors? by Adriaan du Toit Africa’s two largest economies will hold elections this year, and there’s a good chance the outcomes will lead to slightly faster growth and higher asset prices. But rising populism and nationalism remain a longer-term risk. Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 17, 2019 US Government Shutdown—Dimensioning the Economic Effects by Eric Winograd The US government shutdown is almost four weeks old, and there’s no sign that the standoff will be resolved anytime soon. How much has the shutdown impacted—and how much will it impact—economic growth? That depends on how long it lasts. Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 15, 2019 Navigating Fixed Income in Volatile Markets by Douglas J. Peebles The past year was a rough ride for bond investors. Will 2019 deliver more of the same? Economics, Fixed Income, Rising Rates, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 20, 2018 Fewer Fed Rate Hikes in Store—But Not Because the Economy’s Faltering by Eric Winograd As expected, the Fed hiked interest rates yesterday, but we now think there will be fewer hikes in 2019 than we previously called for. Not because the US economy is in trouble, but because the Fed is changing its approach to setting policy. Economics, Policy & Regulation, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 15, 2018 Is the New Brexit Deal Already Dead? by Darren Williams With cabinet ministers resigning by the hour, it’s tempting to think that British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the European Union (EU) is dead on arrival, and that a hard Brexit is now the most likely way forward. But some form of soft Brexit is still the most likely scenario, in our view. Brexit, Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
November 07, 2018 What Does a Divided US Congress Mean for the Economy and Markets? by Erin Bigley, Scott Krauthamer Democrats took the House of Representatives. Republicans held the Senate. What should investors expect from the US midterm election outcome? In the way of policy, not much. But the new political landscape may be good for markets. Economics, Equities, Fixed Income, Policy & Regulation Likes 1 SHARE Bookmarks
November 01, 2018 Red Wave/Blue Wave? Thoughts on the US Election by Eric Winograd What might the US midterm election results mean for fiscal policy and financial markets? Probably not much if Democrats and Republicans end up splitting control of Congress. But a sweep by either party could lead to very different outcomes. Economics, Equities, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
October 02, 2018 NAFTA 2.0: A Bold New Beginning? Or a Modest Rewrite? by Eric Winograd The revised NAFTA deal relieves uncertainty for Canada and avoids a possible Mexican barrier to ratification. But what does it really mean for the three countries involved—or for trade tension with China? Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
September 27, 2018 The Fed’s on Auto-Pilot—For Now by Eric Winograd When it comes to the official US short-term interest rate, the Federal Reserve now appears to be on autopilot, with three more quarter-percentage-point increases likely by mid-2019. But after that, things should get more complicated. Economics, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks