April 11, 2019 Brexit Extension: It’s Progress, but Not as We Know It by Darren Williams The European Union has given Britain seven more months to sort out its exit plans. While the chaos of a disorderly Brexit has been averted for now, we think the compromise could have some unintended consequences. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 08, 2019 Most Interesting Chart Right Now: Recession? Not So Fast by Matthew D. Palazzolo The current 10-year economic expansion is nearing the longest in US history. Based on age alone, many economists—roughly 50% of those recently surveyed—believe a recession is on the horizon. We think this conclusion is misguided. Economics, Wealth Planning Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 01, 2019 Top Five Questions on Your Mind by Matthew D. Palazzolo Thinking ahead to the remainder of 2019 and into 2020, we look at the most frequent questions we’ve been getting from our clients and how certain issues may play out over the foreseeable future. Here we discuss the top five questions on your mind. Capital Markets Outlook, Economics, Equities, Inflation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 26, 2019 Is the Fed Done with Rate Hikes This Year…and Next? by Eric Winograd Last week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) surprised even those who expected a dovish outcome. As the Fed wrangles with its policy framework, one takeaway is clear: don’t expect rate hikes this year—and possibly next. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Later in the Cycle, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 18, 2019 Brexit: Is the Show that Never Ends About to Enter Another Act? by Darren Williams Nearly three years after the UK voted to leave the European Union (EU), the deadline for Brexit is less than two weeks away and the British government is asking for more time. While it’s easy to be distracted by the ongoing chaos in Parliament, it’s important to maintain a steady focus on the underlying parameters of the debate and the range of possible outcomes. These have shifted less than might be imagined. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 28, 2019 The Long View: China—The Indispensable Nation? by Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd A generation ago, China had little influence beyond its borders. Today, its importance to the world economy rivals the United States’. China’s role in markets is growing, too: in April, it will join a major global bond index. The future may bring a freely traded Chinese yuan and a challenge to the US dollar. Currency, Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 22, 2019 Five Reasons Europe Should Avoid Recession in 2019 by Darren Williams The euro area faces another challenging year, but we see a continuation of recent soft growth as much more likely than recession. The European Central Bank (ECB) is, nonetheless, now likely to delay its first rate hike to 2020, and could also implement fresh credit-easing measures. Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 21, 2019 The Long View: Is Tech Helping or Hurting? by Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd This video is part of our series called “The Long View”. Click here for another one in the series, The Long View: Debt and Demographics. Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 06, 2019 The Long View: Debt and Demographics by Douglas J. Peebles, Eric Winograd Countries and companies have been on a borrowing binge even as the growth of the working-age population in many parts of the world slows. Is a prolonged period of low growth and low inflation in our future? Economics, Fixed Income, Later in the Cycle Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 01, 2019 Latest Jobs Data Show a Robust US Labor Market by Eric Winograd The government shutdown and temporary displacement of some workers didn’t cause the strong US labor market to miss a beat. Today’s jobs report reinforces that gains have been accelerating. That’s good news for the economy and markets. Economics, Equities, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 01, 2019 Populism Is Alive and Well: What’s the Big-Picture Impact? by Guy Bruten It’s been two years since our initial research on populism, and populist-inspired policies continue to advance today on multiple fronts. As we see it, investors should expect more of the same ahead—influencing everything from global economic growth and inflation to policies directed specifically at the corporate sector. Capital Markets Outlook, Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 31, 2019 Is It Time for the Fed to Ditch the Dot Plot? by Eric Winograd The magnitude of recent market reactions to the Fed’s comments makes it clear that communication between the Fed and markets isn’t working: the market is too focused on the Fed—and not enough on the economy. One solution? The Fed should stop giving forward guidance about rates—and eliminate the “dot plot.” Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 23, 2019 Nigeria and South Africa: Will Elections Bring Change for Investors? by Adriaan du Toit Africa’s two largest economies will hold elections this year, and there’s a good chance the outcomes will lead to slightly faster growth and higher asset prices. But rising populism and nationalism remain a longer-term risk. Economics, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks