June 30, 2020 COVID as a Catalyst: Will Efficiency Fall by the Wayside in a Riskier World? by Matthew D. Palazzolo, Christopher Brigham For decades, efficiency has been the name of the game for corporate management. Now that the coronavirus has exposed the benefits of robustness, supply chains and capital allocation policies may change. Companies may also take another look at automation, using the recession and pandemic as a catalyst to substitute capital for labor, leading to consequences for their finances, their employees, and the economy overall. Coronavirus, Economics, Equities Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 25, 2020 COVID As A Catalyst: A Tailwind for Technological Adoption by Matthew D. Palazzolo, Christopher Brigham The coronavirus pandemic condensed years of technological adoption into a matter of months. Companies and industries who can take advantage of the shifts to remote working, telehealth, and online education will benefit. Those who cannot were already vulnerable and are now even more at risk. We analyze these trends and the likely winners and losers. Coronavirus, Economics, Equities Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 11, 2020 The Fed Didn’t Ease More...Is That a Missed Opportunity? by Eric Winograd The Fed gave its updated economic outlook this week, but not the additional policy support markets were looking for. We think this was a misstep...but one we hope will be corrected if the outlook doesn’t improve. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 11, 2020 COVID as a Catalyst: The Long-Run Economic and Societal Impact of COVID-19 by Matthew D. Palazzolo, Christopher Brigham The coronavirus has had a major impact on 2020. Once we’re on the other side of the pandemic, though, what structural changes and consequences will follow? In our “COVID as a Catalyst” series, we look at the longer term macroeconomic, technological, corporate, and geopolitical effects of the coronavirus. Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 11, 2020 COVID as a Catalyst: The End of the Era of Good Macro? by Matthew D. Palazzolo, Christopher Brigham We’ve all benefitted from the past few decades of “good macro”—low inflation, falling interest rates, and stable growth. Given the unprecedented economic shock to the system from the coronavirus pandemic and the staggering increase in the national debt and money supply in response, are we at increased risk of a “bad macro” environment in the future? Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
June 02, 2020 What We Can Learn from China’s Rapid Normalization by Mo Ji China is further along the coronavirus curve than much of the rest of the world. What does its path to normal look like, and what are the big unknowns? China, Coronavirus, Economics, Emerging Markets, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 27, 2020 Is the US Turning into Japan? by Greg Young Today’s pandemic response has the US doubling down on the low rates, aggressive stimulus, and barely-there price inflation that have lingered since the financial crisis. Is the US headed down the same path Japan took decades ago? Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 21, 2020 How Will the Coronavirus Change the Role of Central Banks? by Darren Williams COVID-19 has supplied the catalyst for a secular change in the role of central banks. Providing governments with ammunition to fight the virus is now the overriding goal, and this means keeping bond yields pinned close to zero for the foreseeable future. Coronavirus, Economics, Rising Rates Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 18, 2020 The Market and Negative US Rates: Right Idea, Wrong Tool by Eric Winograd The Fed continues to dismiss the idea of negative US rates but the market keeps pricing them in. We don’t expect negative rates: in our view, the market is using them as a proxy for Fed measures that may be needed but aren’t yet identified. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, Volatility Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 07, 2020 Why Is The Stock Market Rising While The Economy Is Falling? by Matthew D. Palazzolo, Christopher Brigham Stocks have risen by 28% from their March lows while the coronavirus case count has grown and the economy has slipped deeper into a recession. How can that be? Put simply, the market is looking ahead and building a bridge to a more normal world in 2021 and beyond. Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 01, 2020 The Coronavirus Policy Wave: When Will the Bill Come Due? by Eric Winograd The onslaught of the coronavirus forced the Federal Reserve and lawmakers to take desperately needed measures. The US economy will eventually recover, but the effects of these drastic policy decisions will be felt for a long time. Coronavirus, Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 27, 2020 Coronavirus Challenges the European Project by Darren Williams The coronavirus has exposed the European Union’s (EU’s) fault lines. For now, European Central Bank (ECB) bond purchases should hold things together. But ultimately, national governments will need to take some tough decisions to secure the EU’s future. Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 20, 2020 Coronavirus and the US Economy: How Big Will the Hit Be? by Eric Winograd The decline in US economic activity from social distancing measures and forced shutdowns is likely to be bigger than our initial guess. While we expect a recovery once the coronavirus crisis eases, we don’t have enough information yet to dimension it. Business Owners, Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks