January 23, 2020 Will the Wuhan Coronavirus Infect China’s Economy? by Mo Ji A virus is spreading across China, causing disruption, severe illness and even death. In addition to the tragic human cost of an epidemic, widespread disease can cause significant macroeconomic damage. We estimate the potential impact of the Wuhan coronavirus on China’s GDP growth. Economics, Emerging Markets Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 16, 2020 The Phase-One US-China Trade Agreement: Cease-Fire, Not Peace Treaty by Eric Winograd The US and China formally signed a phase-one trade deal Wednesday after several months of negotiations. We see the deal as a near-term positive for markets—but it also leaves the thorniest issues between the two countries unresolved. Economics, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 08, 2020 The Silver Lining of 2019’s Weak IPOs by Christopher Brigham Uber, WeWork, and other highly anticipated IPOs got an icy reception from the stock market in 2019. We see the bright side in that, as it took risks off the table both for the market and the economy. Economics, Equities Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 02, 2020 2020 Brings Less Uncertainty, But Not Certainty by Matthew D. Palazzolo 2019’s equity markets turned out to be better than many investors predicted. Despite this strong performance, not everything’s rosy. The economy is still somewhat fragile, and one issue, in particular, may be the critical driver of US growth this year. Capital Markets Outlook, Economics, Equities Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 23, 2019 What’s the Forecast for Fiscal Stimulus? by Darren Williams, Guy Bruten Monetary policy for many central banks is reaching the end of the road for effectiveness. Where and when might economic support shift from monetary policy to fiscal policy? Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 18, 2019 Three Possible Paths for Fed Interest Rate Policy in 2020 by Eric Winograd The US Fed held rates steady in December and plans to continue that stance through 2020. But a lot can happen to change the Fed’s mind—after all, it entered 2019 expecting to hike rates and ended up with three cuts. What does 2020 have in store? Economics, Late-Cycle Investing Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 10, 2019 Is Investing in Gold Worth Its Weight? by Vinod Chathlani Few assets have as much polarized debate and disagreement on their role as an investment than gold. “Gold bugs” tout its reliability as a store of value, while skeptics view gold as a “barbarous relic” whose value is driven primarily by sentiment and occasional mania. Alternatives, Asset Allocation, Economics, Inflation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 13, 2019 Fed Next Steps: What’s Likely, What’s Not by Eric Winograd The Fed has signaled it is unlikely to cut interest rates again in December, but we expect further rate cuts next year. We believe the Fed has not yet done enough to protect the economy against headwinds. While we don’t forecast a US recession, we think additional monetary policy easing will be needed to stabilize growth. Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 05, 2019 Our Most Interesting Chart Right Now: Debt across the Economy—Pre/Post-Crisis Our Bernstein Research US Economics team crunched the numbers to determine which segments of the economy have increased or decreased leverage since the Global Financial Crisis. Economics, Wealth Planning Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
October 08, 2019 Is The Brexit End Game Finally In Sight? by Darren Williams The battle for Brexit has undermined traditional political affiliations and triggered changes in the UK’s constitutional order that could affect future governability. We may now be approaching the end game, though the outcome might not be the one markets are counting on. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
October 02, 2019 The Fed is Cutting Rates. Will That Be Enough? by Eric Winograd The Fed cut rates again and indicated that one more cut should be enough to shore up growth. We think more will be needed. But will rate cuts work? And if not, what else can the Fed do? Economics, Late-Cycle Investing Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
October 02, 2019 Evaluating the Headwinds To the Economic Outlook by Darren Williams The global economy faces its most challenging year in over a decade. Policymakers still have options, but can they use them effectively? Capital Markets Outlook, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
September 16, 2019 The Fed Has More in Its Policy Tool Kit Than You Might Think by Eric Winograd With the global economy facing stronger headwinds, we’ve reduced our global growth and interest-rate expectations. But the US Federal Reserve has a variety of policy tools it could use—some unconventional—that we think will help the US economy hold up better than some of its peers. Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks