March 01, 2021 How Much Further Will US Rates Rise? by Eric Winograd US Treasury yields have surged, buoyed by optimism about economic growth and rising inflation expectations. We think the Fed will push against rates rising too far, too fast. Economics, Fixed Income, Low-Yield Environment Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 22, 2021 Four Things Investors Should Know About US Inflation in 2021 by Eric Winograd We expect US core inflation to surge in the months ahead, as comparisons to low price levels of a year ago cause sizable fluctuations. Ultimately, supply should respond to recovering demand, bringing inflation down and facilitating easy Fed policy. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 05, 2021 Better Stimulus Odds Are Shot in the Arm for US Growth Expectations by Eric Winograd The probability of more fiscal relief from Congress has risen—good news for the US economy and a boost to our growth forecast. While risks remain, and it’s too early to talk about the pandemic in the past tense, we’re optimistic the economy can return to more normal footing soon. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 10, 2020 Will 2021 Mark the Launch of a Durable Global Recovery? by Darren Williams After a difficult winter, we expect the global economy to rebound strongly next year. But structural headwinds remain. Will the post-pandemic bounce trigger a durable and broad-based global reflation? Coronavirus, Economics, Low-Yield Environment Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 07, 2020 A Road Map to the Coming US Economic Cycle by Eric Winograd With a greater level of clarity than we’ve had since the COVID-19 pandemic, we’re getting a better sense of how the US economy might shape up over the next few months, into 2022 and beyond. We see three distinct stages over that time frame. Economics, Fixed Income, Inflation, Low-Yield Environment Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 02, 2020 Will US-China Relations Shift Under Biden? China Seems to Think So by Mo Ji Consensus appears to be forming among Chinese policymakers that the US-China relationship will change under a Biden administration. We touch on seven expectations. China, Economics, Trade Wars, US Election Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 12, 2020 US Economy Still Faces a Long Path Back to Normal by Eric Winograd US third quarter GDP was better than expected, though our updated economic forecasts still show a quick but incomplete recovery. Over time, this should give way to a more gradual, lengthy path back to “normal.” But there are a lot of moving parts. Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 11, 2020 Elections? Vaccines? What They Could Mean for the US Economy by Eric Winograd Two recent developments could have big implications for the US economic outlook: general elections and news of very promising progress on a COVID-19 vaccine. To understand the ramifications, we have to distinguish near term from longer term. Coronavirus, Economics, Fixed Income, US Election Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 11, 2020 Is There Light at the End of the COVID-19 Tunnel for the Euro Area? by Darren Williams A fresh round of lockdowns means a difficult winter lies ahead for the euro area. But three factors caution against excessive pessimism. Coronavirus, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
October 19, 2020 What COVID-19 Means for the Economic Policy Puzzle by Darren Williams, Guy Bruten The COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy response have had an unprecedented impact on the world. It’s hard to predict long-term economic repercussions, but the pandemic is likely to reinforce long-term trends including deglobalization, populism and government debt growth. AB IQ, Coronavirus, Economics, Inflation, Low-Yield Environment Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
October 09, 2020 Positioning Portfolios for Election Uncertainty by Greg Young, Christopher Brigham The 2020 election is rapidly approaching. How should investors prepare for it? We lay out some helpful advice and share how Bernstein’s portfolio managers are incorporating the election in their holdings. Economics, Equities, Fixed Income, Municipals Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
October 06, 2020 The End Game: How Governments Might Tackle Debt Burdens by Darren Williams, Guy Bruten A wave of policy support to stabilize the world economy has left developed nations with a growing public debt load. What path will governments follow to address the issue? History offers several debt-reduction templates. Coronavirus, Economics, Inflation, Low-Yield Environment Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
September 21, 2020 Brexit Negotiations: One Minute to Midnight by Darren Williams The Brexit negotiations are growing more adversarial with no signs of agreement on key issues. The most likely outcomes are now the hardest and most disruptive Brexit scenarios—leading to further potential weakness for the UK’s currency. Brexit, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks