September 03, 2019 Are We Closer to a Recession Post-August? by Matthew D. Palazzolo, Christopher Brigham To help us assess the macroeconomic environment and put the recession fears into perspective, we look at our dashboard, which continuously monitors numerous metrics that provide insights into the health of the economy. Today, five metrics are particularly telling. Capital Markets Outlook, Economics Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 31, 2019 US Corporate Cash Is Down—Will Stocks Follow? by Sharat Kotikalpudi, Caglasu Altunkopru The recent decline in US corporate cash hasn’t raised a lot of eyebrows, but it has caused one of our equity-quality indicators to flash a warning. Since equity quality is one of the signals with a strong track record of predicting market sell-offs, should investors be worried? Capital Markets Outlook, Equities, Multi-Asset Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 01, 2019 The X’s and O’s of Tariff Management by Matthew D. Palazzolo Despite seemingly constructive talks between the US and China over the weekend at the G20 Summit in Osaka, the threat of further trade escalation looms. The initial rounds of US tariffs on Chinese goods were focused mostly on industrial products. But, if the US proceeds with tariffs on “List 4”–the remaining $300 billion of Chinese goods not yet tariffed–consumers are likely to feel the effects. The reason? This next and final round places a 25% tariff on predominantly consumer goods like toys, apparel, sporting goods, and sneakers, among others. Capital Markets Outlook, Trade Wars Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 31, 2019 Will Modern Monetary Theory Go Mainstream? by Eric Winograd Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has moved from the fringe to broader public discussion recently, fueling concern from some investors about growing debt levels. We don’t expect MMT to replace our current economic structure, but its populist-inspired underpinnings will likely have a sizable influence on policy. Capital Markets Outlook, Economics, Inflation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 01, 2019 Is the China Rally Real? by John Lin The China A-shares market fell 33% last year as a multitude of concerns—trade wars, slowing economic growth, tightening monetary policies, and political rhetoric—converged. But in an about-face, the Chinese market is the best performing global market this year, up just over 33% through April. This turnaround has investors wondering if the rally is sustainable. We think it is. Capital Markets Outlook, Emerging Markets, Equities Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 01, 2019 Top Five Questions on Your Mind by Matthew D. Palazzolo Thinking ahead to the remainder of 2019 and into 2020, we look at the most frequent questions we’ve been getting from our clients and how certain issues may play out over the foreseeable future. Here we discuss the top five questions on your mind. Capital Markets Outlook, Economics, Equities, Inflation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 01, 2019 Value Equities: Is the Long, Dark Winter Ending? by James MacGregor, Cem Inal, Shri Singhvi Value investing has always been about challenging the consensus—but never more so than today. After several tough years, we’re seeing signs of a value recovery brewing. Yet fresh approaches are needed to capture the potential in today’s complex markets. Capital Markets Outlook, Equities Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 01, 2019 Populism Is Alive and Well: What’s the Big-Picture Impact? by Guy Bruten It’s been two years since our initial research on populism, and populist-inspired policies continue to advance today on multiple fronts. As we see it, investors should expect more of the same ahead—influencing everything from global economic growth and inflation to policies directed specifically at the corporate sector. Capital Markets Outlook, Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 02, 2019 What a Difference a Year Makes by Matthew D. Palazzolo 2018 began with a bang…and ended with a bust. After a string of 15-months of positive performance for global markets that commenced in November of 2016, 2018 was capped by the worst quarter since 2011*. What changed so drastically from the year prior? Capital Markets Outlook, Equities, Fixed Income, Wealth Planning Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 27, 2018 What will drive the markets in 2019? by Matthew D. Palazzolo 2018 started with the continuance of a 14-month market uptrend and extreme calm. Now with just a few days left in the year, we’ve seen a change: there’s been a resurgence in volatility and a market sell-off of almost 20% since the S&P 500 hit an all-time high in mid-September.* As we think ahead to 2019, we consider the factors that will influence the financial markets and answer questions on the minds of many investors. Capital Markets Outlook, Wealth Planning Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 12, 2018 Is October a Canary in the Coal Mine? by Matthew D. Palazzolo The US market fell in October, giving back much of the year’s positive returns. Higher interest rates and worries around future profit growth and market leadership disrupted the calm environment. Are stocks headed for a prolonged down market? Capital Markets Outlook, Equities, Wealth Planning Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 08, 2018 Answers to the Top Five Questions on Your Mind by Matthew D. Palazzolo Investing is never easy, and today, the task is made even harder by geopolitical tensions, local politics, regulations, and other outside influences. Investors need to understand what’s driving a company’s growth, but they also need to make sense of these seemingly extraneous risks and what they mean for their investments. Capital Markets Outlook, Wealth Planning Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 11, 2018 Checking in on Our 2018 Surprises by Matthew D. Palazzolo Identifying market surprises is an important element of our investment process. The goal is always to understand not only what the market believes, but also where an outcome could be counter to that belief and how the market may react. At the beginning of this year, we discussed 2018 SURPRISES WE WOULDN’T BE SURPRISED BY. Now that we have half of the year behind us, we lay out the five surprises we identified and where they stand today. Capital Markets Outlook, Equities, Wealth Planning Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks