March 01, 2019 Value Equities: Is the Long, Dark Winter Ending? by James MacGregor, Cem Inal, Shri Singhvi Value investing has always been about challenging the consensus—but never more so than today. After several tough years, we’re seeing signs of a value recovery brewing. Yet fresh approaches are needed to capture the potential in today’s complex markets. Capital Markets Outlook, Equities Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 01, 2019 Populism Is Alive and Well: What’s the Big-Picture Impact? by Guy Bruten It’s been two years since our initial research on populism, and populist-inspired policies continue to advance today on multiple fronts. As we see it, investors should expect more of the same ahead—influencing everything from global economic growth and inflation to policies directed specifically at the corporate sector. Capital Markets Outlook, Economics, Policy & Regulation Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 02, 2019 What a Difference a Year Makes by Matthew D. Palazzolo 2018 began with a bang…and ended with a bust. After a string of 15-months of positive performance for global markets that commenced in November of 2016, 2018 was capped by the worst quarter since 2011*. What changed so drastically from the year prior? Capital Markets Outlook, Equities, Fixed Income, Wealth Planning Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
December 27, 2018 What will drive the markets in 2019? by Matthew D. Palazzolo 2018 started with the continuance of a 14-month market uptrend and extreme calm. Now with just a few days left in the year, we’ve seen a change: there’s been a resurgence in volatility and a market sell-off of almost 20% since the S&P 500 hit an all-time high in mid-September.* As we think ahead to 2019, we consider the factors that will influence the financial markets and answer questions on the minds of many investors. Capital Markets Outlook, Wealth Planning Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
November 12, 2018 Is October a Canary in the Coal Mine? by Matthew D. Palazzolo The US market fell in October, giving back much of the year’s positive returns. Higher interest rates and worries around future profit growth and market leadership disrupted the calm environment. Are stocks headed for a prolonged down market? Capital Markets Outlook, Equities, Wealth Planning Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
August 08, 2018 Answers to the Top Five Questions on Your Mind by Matthew D. Palazzolo Investing is never easy, and today, the task is made even harder by geopolitical tensions, local politics, regulations, and other outside influences. Investors need to understand what’s driving a company’s growth, but they also need to make sense of these seemingly extraneous risks and what they mean for their investments. Capital Markets Outlook, Wealth Planning Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
July 11, 2018 Checking in on Our 2018 Surprises by Matthew D. Palazzolo Identifying market surprises is an important element of our investment process. The goal is always to understand not only what the market believes, but also where an outcome could be counter to that belief and how the market may react. At the beginning of this year, we discussed 2018 SURPRISES WE WOULDN’T BE SURPRISED BY. Now that we have half of the year behind us, we lay out the five surprises we identified and where they stand today. Capital Markets Outlook, Equities, Wealth Planning Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
May 08, 2018 What To Make Of The Movement In Interest Rates by Matthew D. Palazzolo In April, the 10-year Treasury yield moved above 3% for the first time since January 2014. At the same time, the interest rate curve continued to flatten and now sits approximately 50 bps from inversion. Are these signs worrisome? We don’t believe so. Capital Markets Outlook, Wealth Planning Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
April 10, 2018 Anatomy of Returns by Matthew D. Palazzolo After one of the calmest equity markets on record, volatility spiked in early February and has increased periodically since. Now there seem to be concerns coming from many different angles affecting the markets, so how do investors know what will ultimately drive returns? The answer is simple and rooted in fundamentals: earnings and valuations. Capital Markets Outlook, Equities, Wealth Planning Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
March 05, 2018 Risk Finally Returns by Matthew D. Palazzolo After an unusually long period of steady positive performance and no dips of even 5%, volatility came roaring to life in early February. The speed and magnitude of this awakening caught investors unawares and ignited a fear that prolonged market losses were on the horizon. Selling took hold. Now, investors are left wondering what’s in store for the near term. Capital Markets Outlook, Equities, Wealth Planning Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
February 08, 2018 The Aftereffects of Tax Cuts on Munis by Matthew D. Palazzolo The municipal bond market was a bit schizophrenic as the debate over the tax bill reached the final stages late last year. While several proposals could have considerably changed the market, the most negative, fortunately, were not enacted. But those that were could alter the muni market. How will they impact muni returns in the years ahead? Capital Markets Outlook, Fixed Income, Wealth Planning Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 10, 2018 2018 Surprises We Wouldn’t Be Surprised By by Matthew D. Palazzolo 2017 marked a healthy year for equity markets while fixed income showed resiliency in the face of Fed tightening. This year, Wall Street forecasts a similar environment, with more modest market returns. In general, we agree with this sanguine forecast, but we are also conscious that unexpected events often surprise the markets. Below we discuss five surprises that are not in consensus thinking, nor are they necessarily our base case assumptions. But if they do occur, will the market be surprised and how will investors react? Capital Markets Outlook, Equities, Wealth Planning Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks
January 05, 2018 Peak After Peak: Do Stock Market Highs Really Matter? by Matthew D. Palazzolo, Ding Liu These days it seems the market hits a new high almost daily. Reaching heights never seen before, stocks show no signs of slowing down. This has raised a certain level of optimism, but also an equal amount of anxiety. Concerned about staying invested or entering the market at the top, investors have one critical question: Do market highs really matter? Capital Markets Outlook, Equities, Wealth Planning Likes 0 SHARE Bookmarks