No Manipulation of US Jobs Data, but the Numbers Are Noisy

In the heat of a US election season, the sharp drop in September’s unemployment rate raised some eyebrows. I think it is blatantly wrong to argue that government statisticians manipulated the data. But the jump in household jobs that triggered the drop in the unemployment  rate was indeed extraordinary and requires further scrutiny.

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The Bigger Picture on US Jobs

Last month, I explained why weak US jobs numbers for March shouldn’t be taken at face value. Since then, we’ve had another month of disappointing employment data—and I have some more evidence to suggest that the underlying trends are better than you might think.

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