Beware of the New Systemic Risk
Ashwin Alankar and Michael DePalma It felt like there was nowhere to hide from the market declines last Monday, April 15, when stocks, bonds and commodities fell in unison across the world, well before the Boston bombings that day. We believe that this failure of diversification was instigated by increasingly powerful multi-asset funds, many of which [...]
read moreIs There a Silver Lining to the Gold Price Plunge?
It’s been a volatile week for gold prices, which tumbled by the most in 30 years. Although gold is still not obviously undervalued, we think the recent market moves make stock prices of gold miners look attractive when compared with prices of the precious metal.
read moreUS Stocks: Third Time’s the Charm
At 1550, the S&P 500 has regained the peak it reached in March of 2000 (when the tech bubble burst) and again in October of 2007 (before the credit crunch hit). But we think the third time’s the charm: We think the stock market still has room to rise because equities are now more attractively [...]
read moreLittle Cyprus Sparks Big Contagion Fears
The situation in Cyprus is still very fluid and very serious—perhaps more so than in Greece last year. While the country may be too small to have a meaningful direct impact on the rest of the euro area, the big issue for markets is the potential for contagion to more systemically important countries.
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Don’t Be Afraid of European High Yield…
Be Selective
The European financial crisis continues to challenge high-yield investors. Some were wary of Europe’s issues and stepped away last year, only to see European bonds dominate through the unpredictability. Others want in now, but worry that they’ve missed the rally.
read moreReducing the Risk from Adding Stock Exposure
Adding other sources of diversification could significantly reduce the risk from increasing stock exposure, our research suggests.
read moreEquity Markets Still Have a Lot Left in the Tank
Upbeat headlines alone don’t make the case that US equity markets will continue plowing ahead. But we think there’s plenty of evidence that 2013 could be the fifth consecutive year that equity investors climb the “wall of worry.”
read moreUK Equities Reach Inflation Tipping Point
Jon Ruff and Patrick Rudden As UK inflation surges ahead, equity investors should be concerned. With yields on inflation-linked bonds at extreme lows, we think real assets offer a better way to combat the risk of rising prices.
read moreChastened ECB Wary of Premature Monetary Tightening
Cyclical indicators have improved, but the economic and financial backdrop in the euro area remains fragile. The ECB has clearly learned from past mistakes and is keen to avoid a premature tightening of monetary conditions.
read moreSolving the Profitability Puzzle
Companies around the world enjoyed especially high profit margins in late 2012. But can this trend be maintained or is profitability poised for a collapse that might threaten stocks this year?
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