Is Asian Turbulence a Win for China?

While this week’s sell-off in Asian currency and bond markets does not, as yet, amount to a crisis in our view, it is obviously cause for concern. At this stage, we think two outcomes are likely: one is that central banks and supranational funding agencies will work together to avert a full-blown crisis; the other [...]

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Equity Market Distortions Create Big Payback Potential

Joseph G. Paul (pictured) and Kevin Simms Even after this year’s equities rally, market imbalances created by the financial crisis in 2008 have not disappeared. When these distortions unwind, we expect deep value stocks to rapidly recover.

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Cracks Appear in the French Economic Model

Today’s PMI data point to a deepening recession in France at a time when Germany is showing tentative signs of life. Is the euro crisis exposing the weaknesses of the French economic model?

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Equities Set to Break Out of the Bear Trap

In the face of significant uncertainties, US and global equities rallied in 2012 and at the start of the New Year. We think there might be more to come as stocks break out of the bear trap.

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Euro-Area Periphery Faces More Pain to Complete Rebalancing

Most peripheral euro-area countries have significantly improved their competitiveness recently, but more needs to be done. With currency devaluation ruled out, further downward pressure on labor costs is likely, which will probably deepen and prolong recessions and interfere with fiscal adjustment.

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Greece Still Needs a Long-Term Growth Plan

Even by the standards of the sovereign-debt crisis, the provisional agreement reached yesterday by euro-area finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on a second Greek rescue package looks like a messy fudge. It is clear that Greece’s euro-area partners are determined to avoid a near-term euro-area exit, but a long-term solution will require [...]

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Private Sector Involvement Is Unlikely in Second Portuguese Bailout

With 10-year Portuguese bond yields above 14% (see Display), the market is suggesting that Portugal will soon need another bailout from its euro-area partners. While we share the market’s skepticism about the sustainability of Portugal’s public sector finances, we doubt that policymakers at this stage will seek to impose losses on private sector creditors, as [...]

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Euro-Area Governments Should Heed S&P’s Warnings

Market reaction to S&P’s decision to downgrade several euro-area countries last week has been rather muted, probably because the move was not really a surprise. Still, I think euro-area governments should pay close attention to the rating agency’s reasoning.

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The Power of Diversifying by Investment Time Horizon

No portfolio is protective in all environments, but the best risk-management strategy is to maintain exposure to well-chosen investments and strategies with short, intermediate and long time horizons. Each group will be poised to outperform in different markets and in response to different investor moods.

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Europe’s Fiscal Compact: A Very Modest Step Forward

The fiscal compact that the leaders of most European Union countries agreed on last week to bring some order to the euro area was broadly in line with expectations. While it may eventually be seen as a first step towards true fiscal union, it is more like a pistol than the long-awaited big bazooka.

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