Thinking Outside the Emerging-Markets Box

Forecasting is never an easy task. In the complex and fast-moving world of emerging markets, it’s particularly difficult. We believe investors would benefit from adding a broader approach to their research toolbox.

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EM Sovereign Debt 2014: Neither Phoenix nor Failure

Emerging-market (EM) sovereign bonds were burned badly in 2013. Will they rise from the ashes in 2014? We believe some will and some won’t. The watchword for 2014 will be selectivity.

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EM Debt Risk: The Devil Is in the Detail

Investors in US dollar-denominated bonds issued by emerging-market (EM) corporates are worried that the greenback’s rise, together with a broad decline in EM currencies, could increase the risk of defaults on their holdings. How worried should they be?

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Value Stocks Beckon in Emerging Markets

Henry D’Auria (pictured) and Morgan Harting Years of playing defense have left many emerging-market (EM) equity portfolios laden with pricey safe-haven stocks. We think they risk missing the big opportunity that’s brewing in value stocks, especially as EM economies begin to stabilize.   

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Supersize EM: Obesity Matters for Emerging-Market Investors

Modern lifestyles are closely linked to rising obesity. As emerging markets follow the lead of the US, expanding waistlines could provide a guide to consumption-related investment trends in emerging markets.

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Dig Deep—Then Dig Some More—to Uncover Risks in EM Corporate Debt

Emerging-market (EM) corporate debt returned big numbers for investors in recent years, as the sector rode a general wave of optimism about the future. But those days are gone. In 2013, successful investors have had to take a more painstaking path.

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Will Emerging Stocks Get a Developed-World Lift in 2014?

The failure of emerging economies to piggyback on the rich-world recovery this year is giving investors pause, despite enticing emerging-market (EM) valuations. But investors shouldn’t underestimate the power of this normally symbiotic relationship—or the upside potential in EM stocks next year on even a modest pickup in EM economic activity.

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Predicting Death to Find Life in Emerging Market Stocks

Over the past year, investors have become excessively cautious about emerging markets. To compensate for the additional uncertainty, many underestimate the upside potential. Paradoxically, to get a better handle on the risks, we believe they should assume the worst. By using this “pre-mortem” approach, not only do they have a better chance of avoiding disaster, [...]

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The Party’s Over. Why Own Commodities?

Jon Ruff (pictured) and Seth J. Masters Commodity prices soared during the first decade of this century. But now the party’s over: new sources of supply are coming on line just as demand from China is slowing, leading to expectations of price declines. So should investors shun commodity-related investments?

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Is China Past Its Manufacturing Prime?

China has been an incredible export engine of manufactured goods over the past decade and the central player of the BRICs era. But mounting competition from other countries is gradually pulling production away from China. How should investors proceed?

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