Who’s Afraid of Low, Low Rates?

Falling yields on Treasuries are often seen as a signal of a weakening economy that could undermine stocks. We think there are other explanations that don’t threaten the outlook for equities.

read more

Patterns of US Economic Recovery Suggest Faster Growth Ahead

Recoveries from past financially driven recessions have tended to be slow, and so far the current US recovery is following that pattern. But abundant liquidity and fading headwinds suggest to us that growth is likely to accelerate.

read more

Should Euro-Area Exporters Worry About a Weaker Yen?

Darren Williams (pictured) and Guy Bruten As the yen continues to plummet, exporters around the world are growing concerned that Japanese rivals may gain a competitive advantage. But our analysis suggests that the euro-area economy may not be quite as vulnerable as widely perceived. 

read more

Rising Asset Prices Sharpen US Policy Challenge

As the housing market wakes up and the stock market rallies, strong gains in asset prices are improving US household wealth and helping to reduce the federal deficit. This is a great boost for confidence, but it also sharpens the challenge facing US fiscal and monetary authorities.

read more

Today’s Good News Isn’t Bad for US Stocks

Believe it or not, recent US housing market gains, the slight reduction in jobless rates and other signs of a revival in US economic growth are making some investors bearish about US stocks.  We think their fears are misplaced.

read more

Contrarian Investing and the US Auto Rebound

Kevin Simms and Ajit Ketkar When US auto sales were in the dumps three years ago, an investor predicting a rebound was considered about as credible as a used car salesman. Today, a bumper year for car sales is providing a great example of the enduring principles of long-term investing.

read more

UK Budget: No Fiscal Consolidation, but Looser Money Ahead

We expect little change in UK fiscal policy in Wednesday’s budget. Instead the Chancellor George Osborne may try to nudge the Bank of England towards more aggressive monetary easing, putting further pressure on the pound.

read more

Shadow Banking Darkens China Policy Outlook

Chinese government measures to cool the property market last week could be the start of a broader tightening campaign. The “shadow banking” industry might be next in line for action.

read more

US Manufacturing Restores Competitive Vigor

The US manufacturing sector has repeatedly figured out how to reinvent itself when faced with competitive threats. In recent years, American companies have become much leaner, regaining an edge in global markets that should lead to a bigger role in economic growth.

read more

Equity Markets Still Have a Lot Left in the Tank

Upbeat headlines alone don’t make the case that US equity markets will continue plowing ahead. But we think there’s plenty of evidence that 2013 could be the fifth consecutive year that equity investors climb the “wall of worry.”

read more

Archives by Month:

Archives by Subject: