Today’s Good News Isn’t Bad for US Stocks
Believe it or not, recent US housing market gains, the slight reduction in jobless rates and other signs of a revival in US economic growth are making some investors bearish about US stocks. We think their fears are misplaced.
read moreContrarian Investing and the US Auto Rebound
Kevin Simms and Ajit Ketkar When US auto sales were in the dumps three years ago, an investor predicting a rebound was considered about as credible as a used car salesman. Today, a bumper year for car sales is providing a great example of the enduring principles of long-term investing.
read moreUK Budget: No Fiscal Consolidation, but Looser Money Ahead
We expect little change in UK fiscal policy in Wednesday’s budget. Instead the Chancellor George Osborne may try to nudge the Bank of England towards more aggressive monetary easing, putting further pressure on the pound.
read moreShadow Banking Darkens China Policy Outlook
Chinese government measures to cool the property market last week could be the start of a broader tightening campaign. The “shadow banking” industry might be next in line for action.
read moreUS Manufacturing Restores Competitive Vigor
The US manufacturing sector has repeatedly figured out how to reinvent itself when faced with competitive threats. In recent years, American companies have become much leaner, regaining an edge in global markets that should lead to a bigger role in economic growth.
read moreEquity Markets Still Have a Lot Left in the Tank
Upbeat headlines alone don’t make the case that US equity markets will continue plowing ahead. But we think there’s plenty of evidence that 2013 could be the fifth consecutive year that equity investors climb the “wall of worry.”
read moreFed Must Tune in to Changing US Economy
With each passing month, more questions are being asked about the sluggish US economic recovery. Why has growth been subdued since the recession ended in mid-2009? What’s changed in the economy? How long can loose monetary policies persist before promoting more inflation or creating a new bubble?
read moreCracks Appear in the French Economic Model
Today’s PMI data point to a deepening recession in France at a time when Germany is showing tentative signs of life. Is the euro crisis exposing the weaknesses of the French economic model?
read moreChastened ECB Wary of Premature Monetary Tightening
Cyclical indicators have improved, but the economic and financial backdrop in the euro area remains fragile. The ECB has clearly learned from past mistakes and is keen to avoid a premature tightening of monetary conditions.
read moreUK Threat to Exit EU: Much Ado About Nothing
In a speech last week, British Prime Minister David Cameron raised the possibility that the UK might push the “nuclear button” and leave the European Union. We think both the threat and consequences of such a move have been exaggerated.
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