We Expect High-Yield Defaults to Remain Low
High-yield bond defaults are historically low today, even for troubled companies. Despite the worries we hear in some corners about looming high-yield defaults, we think default rates will stay low for at least the next few years.
Read MoreUK Equities Reach Inflation Tipping Point
Jon Ruff and Patrick Rudden
As UK inflation surges ahead, equity investors should be concerned. With yields on inflation-linked bonds at extreme lows, we think real assets offer a better way to combat the risk of rising prices.
Read MoreGauging the Mortgage Trade Today
Doug Peebles and Matthew D. Bass
Is the mortgage trade over? No, and in some ways, it’s just beginning.
Read MoreFed Must Tune in to Changing US Economy
With each passing month, more questions are being asked about the sluggish US economic recovery. Why has growth been subdued since the recession ended in mid-2009? What’s changed in the economy? How long can loose monetary policies persist before promoting more inflation or creating a new bubble?
Read MoreCracks Appear in the French Economic Model
Today’s PMI data point to a deepening recession in France at a time when Germany is showing tentative signs of life. Is the euro crisis exposing the weaknesses of the French economic model?
Read MoreWhere SMID-Caps Get Their Performance Muscle
Bruce K. Aronow and James MacGregor
SMID-cap stocks, which bridge small- and mid-cap indices, have performed almost as powerfully as small-caps historically, but haven’t been as erratic. The “mid” in SMID is largely why.
Read MoreIn Defense of Commodity Futures
Seth J. Masters and Jon Ruff
Several prominent pension funds have slashed their commodity futures investments for delivering poor returns with higher volatility than usual, while failing to diversify equity exposures as expected, The Wall Street Journal recently reported. If inflation rises, they may regret it.
Read MoreChastened ECB Wary of Premature Monetary Tightening
Cyclical indicators have improved, but the economic and financial backdrop in the euro area remains fragile. The ECB has clearly learned from past mistakes and is keen to avoid a premature tightening of monetary conditions.
Read MoreThe Next Step to Increasing DC Plan Participation
Defined contribution (DC) plans can deliver benefits only if workers choose to participate. Unfortunately, about one in every five eligible US employees chooses not to, according to research from Aon Hewitt.
Read MoreAfter ATRA, Tax Management Gains Importance
Daniel B. Eagan and Paul Robertson
The US tax reform just enacted has made effective tax management of portfolios far more valuable for some investors. The old rules of thumb never really worked, but their shortcomings will now cost investors more.
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