Yellen’s Inheritance: Monetary Policy in Flux

Joseph G. Carson (pictured) and Darren Williams Evolving economic challenges are transforming central banking around the world. The new monetary-policy doctrine is likely to put greater emphasis on asset-price developments. But, without a true monetary anchor, central banks could still risk a repeat of the recent boom/bust cycle.

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Patterns of US Economic Recovery Suggest Faster Growth Ahead

Recoveries from past financially driven recessions have tended to be slow, and so far the current US recovery is following that pattern. But abundant liquidity and fading headwinds suggest to us that growth is likely to accelerate.

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Bank of England’s Growth Focus Might Stir Inflation Ghost

The Bank of England appears to have moved the goalposts. After 30 years of focusing almost exclusively on inflation, monetary policy is now being more explicitly directed toward generating faster growth and lower unemployment.

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China at a Crossroads

Expectations are high that President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang, nearly one year into their likely 10-year reign, will unveil reform policies that will define China’s social and economic development over the next decade and beyond. After the proposals are made public, the new leaders must prove that they can implement substantial change without [...]

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Washington Woes…Again

Seth J. Masters (pictured) and Dianne Lob There is no way to accurately assess the impact of the US government shutdown that began today, since we do not know how long it will last. In the past, such shutdowns have been short-lived and have not had a major economic and market impact.

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Illinois and California: Similar Challenges, Different Approaches

Joe Rosenblum (pictured), Neene Jenkins and John Ceffalio Every state faces challenges when it comes to balancing the books, but not every state is equally effective at tackling them. The responses of California and Illinois to post-2008 difficulties show how different the approaches can be—and how much is at stake.

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Expect Business as Usual After the German Election

Many pundits believe the German federal election on September 22 will prove a turning point in the sovereign debt-crisis. We are less convinced.

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Is Asian Turbulence a Win for China?

While this week’s sell-off in Asian currency and bond markets does not, as yet, amount to a crisis in our view, it is obviously cause for concern. At this stage, we think two outcomes are likely: one is that central banks and supranational funding agencies will work together to avert a full-blown crisis; the other [...]

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China Comes Closer to Convergence

An announcement in late July by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) may prove to be a milestone we look back on as the trigger for the next step in the evolution of the offshore renminbi bond market. Effectively, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has underwritten liquidity in the offshore renminbi.

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Japan: Firing the Third Arrow

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ability to implement his agenda is politically unfettered. But can he deliver, and will his policies work? We remain cautiously optimistic.

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