UK Threat to Exit EU: Much Ado About Nothing
In a speech last week, British Prime Minister David Cameron raised the possibility that the UK might push the “nuclear button” and leave the European Union. We think both the threat and consequences of such a move have been exaggerated.
read moreEquities Set to Break Out of the Bear Trap
In the face of significant uncertainties, US and global equities rallied in 2012 and at the start of the New Year. We think there might be more to come as stocks break out of the bear trap.
read moreIs the Euro “Dangerously High”?
Jean-Claude Juncker’s view that the euro is “dangerously high” isn’t shared by the European Central Bank (ECB). As long as this is the case, the single currency may continue to defy fundamentals and act as an unwelcome headwind for an economy still struggling to break out of recession.
read moreUK Economic Quagmire Adds Pressure for Monetary Policy Change
Bank of England governor-elect, Mark Carney, has raised hopes that the central bank may soon switch to a nominal GDP target. In our view, the costs outweigh the benefits, but the attractions of a radical new approach will grow if the economy remains stuck in the doldrums.
read moreInvestors Vote for Equities as Japanese Elections Near
Takeo Aso and Nicholas Davidson Current bearishness on the yen is reigniting investors’ interest in Japanese equities. In our view, yen weakness is likely to continue and may help boost the Japanese equity market, with undervalued companies poised to benefit most.
read moreWho’s Afraid of the Fiscal Cliff?
Warnings about the fiscal cliff have saturated the US public debate. But consumers are still spending, even though they face huge potential tax hikes, while companies are being very cautious—even though they have relatively little to lose.
read moreEuro-Area Periphery Faces More Pain to Complete Rebalancing
Most peripheral euro-area countries have significantly improved their competitiveness recently, but more needs to be done. With currency devaluation ruled out, further downward pressure on labor costs is likely, which will probably deepen and prolong recessions and interfere with fiscal adjustment.
read moreGreece Still Needs a Long-Term Growth Plan
Even by the standards of the sovereign-debt crisis, the provisional agreement reached yesterday by euro-area finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on a second Greek rescue package looks like a messy fudge. It is clear that Greece’s euro-area partners are determined to avoid a near-term euro-area exit, but a long-term solution will require [...]
read moreNew Leaders, Same Steady Hand on the Chinese Economic Tiller
The media spotlight is on China’s new president, Xi Jinping. But investors should be watching Li Keqiang, the new premier. It’s Mr Li who will be responsible for combating the country’s slowing economic growth and, with it, potentially the fate of the world’s economy.
read moreEuro Area Still in Denial about Failure in Greece
Despite the Greek government’s best efforts, last night’s meeting of euro-area finance ministers failed to approve the release of new funding. We think it’s only a matter of time before Greece gets its money. But the latest delay reflects deep disagreement about how to reduce current unsustainable debt levels. Until the euro area addresses this [...]
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