EM Debt Risk: The Devil Is in the Detail

Investors in US dollar-denominated bonds issued by emerging-market (EM) corporates are worried that the greenback’s rise, together with a broad decline in EM currencies, could increase the risk of defaults on their holdings. How worried should they be?

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Value Stocks Beckon in Emerging Markets

Henry D’Auria (pictured) and Morgan Harting Years of playing defense have left many emerging-market (EM) equity portfolios laden with pricey safe-haven stocks. We think they risk missing the big opportunity that’s brewing in value stocks, especially as EM economies begin to stabilize.   

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Supersize EM: Obesity Matters for Emerging-Market Investors

Modern lifestyles are closely linked to rising obesity. As emerging markets follow the lead of the US, expanding waistlines could provide a guide to consumption-related investment trends in emerging markets.

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Predicting Death to Find Life in Emerging Market Stocks

Over the past year, investors have become excessively cautious about emerging markets. To compensate for the additional uncertainty, many underestimate the upside potential. Paradoxically, to get a better handle on the risks, we believe they should assume the worst. By using this “pre-mortem” approach, not only do they have a better chance of avoiding disaster, [...]

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Is China Past Its Manufacturing Prime?

China has been an incredible export engine of manufactured goods over the past decade and the central player of the BRICs era. But mounting competition from other countries is gradually pulling production away from China. How should investors proceed?

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Sugar: A Sweet Spot for Emerging Market Investors

Sugar consumption has often been seen as a mark of affluence. But for emerging market investors, knowing how sugar is consumed can also be a guide to the successful investments of the future. We argue that only on-the-ground grassroots research can provide the knowledge needed to find these investment sweet spots.

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How to Invest in Emerging Markets 3.0

It’s been 25 years since the emerging-market equities index was created, and much has changed. Today, we believe that emerging markets are on the cusp of a third phase that might compel investors to shift away from benchmarks and focus on absolute risk.

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How Will Latin America Weather a “Sudden Stop” in Investment?

Since May, over one-quarter of the past five months’ foreign portfolio investment into emerging markets has been withdrawn, according to the latest available data from Emerging Portfolio Fund Research. For the Latin American economies, this is likely to result in slower growth, but the impact may be milder this time around.

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Emerging-Market Currency Returns: Fact vs. Fiction

By Paul DeNoon (pictured) and Kenneth Colangelo Emerging-market (EM) currencies have long been a popular investment theme. It’s commonly assumed that attractive returns can be earned from the appreciation of EM currencies versus the dollar. The truth is a bit more complicated.

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Triangulating a Truer Course Through Emerging Markets

Where can you find a car market which will double in size in the next five years? Brazil and Russia might be obvious places to look, but would you have expected Chile, Colombia, Ukraine and Vietnam? Picking the next big themes in emerging consumer markets is even harder than in the well-researched developed world. To [...]

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