History and Policy Point to Renminbi Rally

Many investors are worried about the future path of the Chinese currency after its sharp depreciation earlier this year. Based on fundamentals and the expectation that China will stick to its foreign-exchange policy, we think the currency has reached a fork in the road and is likely to rally.

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RMB Hits a Speed Bump—for Now

The notion that China’s currency, the renminbi (RMB), is on a long-term path of appreciation appears in question after its sharp decline since February. We think that the setback is only temporary—and that the currency will resume its climb in a few months.

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Asian Currencies to Stay Calm at Center of EM Storm

Emerging markets have fallen from favor, but does that mean investors should avoid them entirely? We don’t think so.

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Is Asian Turbulence a Win for China?

While this week’s sell-off in Asian currency and bond markets does not, as yet, amount to a crisis in our view, it is obviously cause for concern. At this stage, we think two outcomes are likely: one is that central banks and supranational funding agencies will work together to avert a full-blown crisis; the other [...]

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Emerging-Market Currency Returns: Fact vs. Fiction

By Paul DeNoon (pictured) and Kenneth Colangelo Emerging-market (EM) currencies have long been a popular investment theme. It’s commonly assumed that attractive returns can be earned from the appreciation of EM currencies versus the dollar. The truth is a bit more complicated.

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China’s Uncertainties Won’t Stop Renminbi’s Rise

Recent data releases and the transition to new political leadership have created some uncertainty about China’s short-term economic outlook. While positive growth surprises are unlikely in 2013, we still think nothing can stop the long-term appreciation of China’s currency, the renminbi (RMB).

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Investors Vote for Equities as Japanese Elections Near

Takeo Aso and Nicholas Davidson Current bearishness on the yen is reigniting investors’ interest in Japanese equities. In our view, yen weakness is likely to continue and may help boost the Japanese equity market, with undervalued companies poised to benefit most.

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Five Reasons Why We Think the Renminbi is Still a Buy

The renminbi (RMB) has strengthened significantly in recent years. We don’t think it will continue to appreciate at the same pace, and in the very short term we may see two-way volatility in the exchange rate. But we are still positive on the currency, especially in the medium term.  Here are five reasons why.

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Stronger Renminbi Is Key to Chinese Rebalancing

China’s recent move to widen the renminbi’s trading band is unlikely to impact the near-term path of the currency, but we believe it represents another important step forward in the country’s financial liberalization. Below, my colleague Anthony Chan explains how a more flexible—and stronger—currency is a vital component of policymakers’ efforts to rebalance China’s export-dependent [...]

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The Chinese Currency’s Great Leap Forward

China is set to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy in less than a decade, but its currency, the renminbi, still accounts for just a tiny fraction of global trade settlement. While there’s a long way to go before it’s viable as a global reserve currency, we think that the renminbi will challenge [...]

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