Is Asian Turbulence a Win for China?

While this week’s sell-off in Asian currency and bond markets does not, as yet, amount to a crisis in our view, it is obviously cause for concern. At this stage, we think two outcomes are likely: one is that central banks and supranational funding agencies will work together to avert a full-blown crisis; the other [...]

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China Comes Closer to Convergence

An announcement in late July by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) may prove to be a milestone we look back on as the trigger for the next step in the evolution of the offshore renminbi bond market. Effectively, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has underwritten liquidity in the offshore renminbi.

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Japan: Firing the Third Arrow

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ability to implement his agenda is politically unfettered. But can he deliver, and will his policies work? We remain cautiously optimistic.

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For Abenomics, the Hard Part Is Still to Come

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” program, designed to revive Japan’s economy, was a big success in its first five months, easily surpassing low expectations. But it’s drifted off course since it began, and the going is sure to get tougher from here. Still, it’s too early to write off this policy experiment.

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Japan and the Euphoric Volatility Trap

Ashwin Alankar (pictured), Michael DePalma and Arnab Nilim When equity markets are buoyant and optimism abounds, fears of volatility tend to subside. But recent events in Japan remind us that euphoria itself can generate turbulence.

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Should Euro-Area Exporters Worry About a Weaker Yen?

Darren Williams (pictured) and Guy Bruten As the yen continues to plummet, exporters around the world are growing concerned that Japanese rivals may gain a competitive advantage. But our analysis suggests that the euro-area economy may not be quite as vulnerable as widely perceived. 

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Indian Milk Helps Quench Thirst for Emerging-Market Growth

Evolving trends in emerging markets are not always driven by macro-economic policies or demographics. Sometimes, something as simple as a fridge can change millions of people’s lives and re-define an entire industry.

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China’s Uncertainties Won’t Stop Renminbi’s Rise

Recent data releases and the transition to new political leadership have created some uncertainty about China’s short-term economic outlook. While positive growth surprises are unlikely in 2013, we still think nothing can stop the long-term appreciation of China’s currency, the renminbi (RMB).

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Shadow Banking Darkens China Policy Outlook

Chinese government measures to cool the property market last week could be the start of a broader tightening campaign. The “shadow banking” industry might be next in line for action.

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No Need to Fear China’s Housing Crackdown

Stuart Rae and John Lin New measures to cool China’s housing market have triggered fresh volatility and stock declines across Asia. But we think the latest government moves won’t derail the long-term drivers of Chinese real estate growth.

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