Should Euro-Area Exporters Worry About a Weaker Yen?
Darren Williams (pictured) and Guy Bruten As the yen continues to plummet, exporters around the world are growing concerned that Japanese rivals may gain a competitive advantage. But our analysis suggests that the euro-area economy may not be quite as vulnerable as widely perceived.
read moreLikely Rate Cut from the European Central Bank Will Be No Magic Wand
Disappointing April data suggest that the ECB is set to cut the refinancing rate at Thursday’s Council meeting. This is likely to have limited economic impact but could encourage expectations of more creative policy action later, helping to take some upward pressure off the euro.
read moreCyprus Averts Disaster, but the Price is High
The European Union’s last-minute deal with Cyprus has headed off bankruptcy for now, but comes at a heavy price for uninsured bank depositors. Meanwhile, the move to impose losses on private creditors and growing complacency among policymakers could be storing up trouble for the future.
read moreLittle Cyprus Sparks Big Contagion Fears
The situation in Cyprus is still very fluid and very serious—perhaps more so than in Greece last year. While the country may be too small to have a meaningful direct impact on the rest of the euro area, the big issue for markets is the potential for contagion to more systemically important countries.
read moreUK Budget: No Fiscal Consolidation, but Looser Money Ahead
We expect little change in UK fiscal policy in Wednesday’s budget. Instead the Chancellor George Osborne may try to nudge the Bank of England towards more aggressive monetary easing, putting further pressure on the pound.
read moreCracks Appear in the French Economic Model
Today’s PMI data point to a deepening recession in France at a time when Germany is showing tentative signs of life. Is the euro crisis exposing the weaknesses of the French economic model?
read moreChastened ECB Wary of Premature Monetary Tightening
Cyclical indicators have improved, but the economic and financial backdrop in the euro area remains fragile. The ECB has clearly learned from past mistakes and is keen to avoid a premature tightening of monetary conditions.
read moreUK Threat to Exit EU: Much Ado About Nothing
In a speech last week, British Prime Minister David Cameron raised the possibility that the UK might push the “nuclear button” and leave the European Union. We think both the threat and consequences of such a move have been exaggerated.
read moreIs the Euro “Dangerously High”?
Jean-Claude Juncker’s view that the euro is “dangerously high” isn’t shared by the European Central Bank (ECB). As long as this is the case, the single currency may continue to defy fundamentals and act as an unwelcome headwind for an economy still struggling to break out of recession.
read moreUK Economic Quagmire Adds Pressure for Monetary Policy Change
Bank of England governor-elect, Mark Carney, has raised hopes that the central bank may soon switch to a nominal GDP target. In our view, the costs outweigh the benefits, but the attractions of a radical new approach will grow if the economy remains stuck in the doldrums.
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