Beyond the Emerging Middle Class

For many years, the rise of the middle class in emerging markets has captivated the imagination of investors. We think this is an illusion. It’s the working classes who will be the real engines of consumer growth in developing countries.

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Predicting Death to Find Life in Emerging Market Stocks

Over the past year, investors have become excessively cautious about emerging markets. To compensate for the additional uncertainty, many underestimate the upside potential. Paradoxically, to get a better handle on the risks, we believe they should assume the worst. By using this “pre-mortem” approach, not only do they have a better chance of avoiding disaster, [...]

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Sugar: A Sweet Spot for Emerging Market Investors

Sugar consumption has often been seen as a mark of affluence. But for emerging market investors, knowing how sugar is consumed can also be a guide to the successful investments of the future. We argue that only on-the-ground grassroots research can provide the knowledge needed to find these investment sweet spots.

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Triangulating a Truer Course Through Emerging Markets

Where can you find a car market which will double in size in the next five years? Brazil and Russia might be obvious places to look, but would you have expected Chile, Colombia, Ukraine and Vietnam? Picking the next big themes in emerging consumer markets is even harder than in the well-researched developed world. To [...]

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Big Numbers Obscure Emerging Market Trends

Big is not necessarily beautiful when it comes to forecasting emerging markets. In fact, the kind of big numbers that are often bandied around can actually make it harder for investors to understand what’s really going on. We think there is a better way.

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Indian Milk Helps Quench Thirst for Emerging-Market Growth

Evolving trends in emerging markets are not always driven by macro-economic policies or demographics. Sometimes, something as simple as a fridge can change millions of people’s lives and re-define an entire industry.

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