The Case for the 20,000 Dow, One Year Later

In July 2012, we argued that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would rise to 20,000 within a decade. At the time, the 20,000 Dow looked impossibly far off. With the market up over 20% since then, our forecast now seems less ambitious. What has changed over the past year? And what should we expect looking [...]

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US Stocks: Third Time’s the Charm

At 1550, the S&P 500 has regained the peak it reached in March of 2000 (when the tech bubble burst) and again in October of 2007 (before the credit crunch hit). But we think the third time’s the charm: We think the stock market still has room to rise because equities are now more attractively [...]

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Reducing the Risk from Adding Stock Exposure

Adding other sources of diversification could significantly reduce the risk from increasing stock exposure, our research suggests.

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How Much Risk Does Adding Stocks Pose?

Investors have good reasons for their recent net increase in stock fund purchases—and good reasons to remain anxious, in our view. While market volatility has returned to normal, memories of the wild market swings of the past five years loom large. Here’s what we think about the risk of increasing stock exposure now.

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Is It Time to Get Back into Stocks—or Too Late?

After five years of fleeing stocks for the perceived safety of bonds, US mutual fund investors became net buyers of stock funds in January. While some see the return of the retail investor as a negative indicator for stocks, we say, “Better late than never.”

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In Defense of Commodity Futures

Seth J. Masters and Jon Ruff Several prominent pension funds have slashed their commodity futures investments for delivering poor returns with higher volatility than usual, while failing to diversify equity exposures as expected, The Wall Street Journal recently reported. If inflation rises, they may regret it.

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The Next Step to Increasing DC Plan Participation

Defined contribution (DC) plans can deliver benefits only if workers choose to participate. Unfortunately, about one in every five eligible US employees chooses not to, according to research from Aon Hewitt.

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The Myth of the Nest Egg

For decades we’ve focused on the nest-egg notion as the goal for retirement saving, benchmarking our progress in relation to that lump sum. But it has no context other than probably being the single biggest “paycheck” most of us will ever see.

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The Road to Restoring Confidence in Retirement

We are optimistic that a bright future lies ahead for retirement, despite all the concerns that Americans feel today.

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Poof! There Goes the American Retirement Dream…Again

When it comes to planning for retirement, we’ve been setting US workers up to fail.

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