Are US Stocks Heading for a Fall?

It’s a truism that what goes up, must come down—but when, and by how much? That matters, especially if you’re talking about the US stock market.

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Lessons Learned in 2013

In 2013, interest rates rose, bonds fell, equities soared, and US income-tax rates climbed higher. Before starting to place bets for 2014, investors would be wise to think about some important lessons from 2013.

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Reality – Expectations = Happiness

Many US investors may be disappointed when they open their account statements.  Despite the widespread news that the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 21% in the  first 10 months of 2013, most US investors’ taxable portfolio returns were far lower—typically somewhere between 5% and16% range.

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Risk Management: An Ounce of Prevention

Seth J. Masters (pictured), Daniel J. Loewy and Martin Atkin They say an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. But if the sickness is excessive portfolio volatility, “prevention” can entail more than one step.

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Washington Woes…Again

Seth J. Masters (pictured) and Dianne Lob There is no way to accurately assess the impact of the US government shutdown that began today, since we do not know how long it will last. In the past, such shutdowns have been short-lived and have not had a major economic and market impact.

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You’ve Got to Take Risk. So, Manage It

Seth J. Masters (pictured), Daniel J. Loewy and Martin Atkin Below-average expected returns will make it difficult for most investors to achieve their goals with traditional portfolios unless they increase stock exposure dramatically.There is a better way.

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How Much Will Fed Tightening Hurt?

Seth J. Masters (pictured) and Ding Liu A lot of people worry about what will happen when the Federal Reserve lets interest rates rise. Our research suggests that’s not the big risk. 

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The Case for the 20,000 Dow, One Year Later

In July 2012, we argued that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would rise to 20,000 within a decade. At the time, the 20,000 Dow looked impossibly far off. With the market up over 20% since then, our forecast now seems less ambitious. What has changed over the past year? And what should we expect looking [...]

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US Stocks: Third Time’s the Charm

At 1550, the S&P 500 has regained the peak it reached in March of 2000 (when the tech bubble burst) and again in October of 2007 (before the credit crunch hit). But we think the third time’s the charm: We think the stock market still has room to rise because equities are now more attractively [...]

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Reducing the Risk from Adding Stock Exposure

Adding other sources of diversification could significantly reduce the risk from increasing stock exposure, our research suggests.

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