No Manipulation of US Jobs Data, but the Numbers Are Noisy

In the heat of a US election season, the sharp drop in September’s unemployment rate raised some eyebrows. I think it is blatantly wrong to argue that government statisticians manipulated the data. But the jump in household jobs that triggered the drop in the unemployment  rate was indeed extraordinary and requires further scrutiny.

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Does an Odd Economic Tidbit Reveal Surging Optimism?

The Philadelphia Fed Index, a leading measure of US economic activity, beat analysts’ expectations. But what caught our eye—and many others’ as well—was a detail within the survey: the future index jumped more sharply than it has since February 1991, when the first Gulf War ended unexpectedly quickly.

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Fiscal Cliff Adds Urgency to US Election Budget Showdown

With a record tax increase on tap for January 1, 2013, there has never been a better time for Washington to have a serious debate about fiscal policy. Before the economy reaches the so-called fiscal cliff, when huge tax increases and spending cuts are scheduled to take effect, US voters will have the opportunity to [...]

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What’s Behind the Risk-On/Risk-Off US Economy?

The US economic recovery is progressing in fits and starts. Short-lived “risk-on” periods, when companies and consumers invest more, seem to constantly give way to “risk-off” periods, with anxiety and fear restraining economic activity.

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The Bigger Picture on US Jobs

Last month, I explained why weak US jobs numbers for March shouldn’t be taken at face value. Since then, we’ve had another month of disappointing employment data—and I have some more evidence to suggest that the underlying trends are better than you might think.

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Don’t Be Fooled by Weak US Job Numbers in March

It seems like every twist and turn in the US employment data is being observed under a microscope. But don’t let the weak job numbers in March fool you—the underlying trends still point to continued improvements on the employment front.

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US Economic Gains Fail to Dent “Safety First” Market Mindset

Risk-taking is an important component of an economic recovery, as it unlocks spending and investment power that is pent up during a downturn. But two and a half years since the US recession ended, individual investors are still playing it safe. 

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US to Play Bigger Role in Global Economic Recovery

The forces driving the global economy are changing.  We expect the US economy to take on a bigger role in the global recovery in 2012, while growth in emerging markets decelerates from the fast pace in 2011.

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Why US Profits Have Soared amid Slow Economic Gains

There seems to be a disconnect between US corporate earnings and the state of the economy these days.

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Global Economy Poised for Uneven Regional Growth in 2012

As challenges to the global economy intensify, regional growth is likely to diverge next year. During 2012, we expect stronger gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Japan and the US, while economic growth in many European countries is likely to decelerate sharply or even contract a bit.   Europe is the epicenter of global weakness. [...]

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