Rising Asset Prices Sharpen US Policy Challenge
As the housing market wakes up and the stock market rallies, strong gains in asset prices are improving US household wealth and helping to reduce the federal deficit. This is a great boost for confidence, but it also sharpens the challenge facing US fiscal and monetary authorities.
read moreUS Manufacturing Restores Competitive Vigor
The US manufacturing sector has repeatedly figured out how to reinvent itself when faced with competitive threats. In recent years, American companies have become much leaner, regaining an edge in global markets that should lead to a bigger role in economic growth.
read moreFed Must Tune in to Changing US Economy
With each passing month, more questions are being asked about the sluggish US economic recovery. Why has growth been subdued since the recession ended in mid-2009? What’s changed in the economy? How long can loose monetary policies persist before promoting more inflation or creating a new bubble?
read moreWho’s Afraid of the Fiscal Cliff?
Warnings about the fiscal cliff have saturated the US public debate. But consumers are still spending, even though they face huge potential tax hikes, while companies are being very cautious—even though they have relatively little to lose.
read moreThere’s New Hope for US Recovery as Early Cyclical Sectors Rebound
Something is changing in the US economic recovery. Housing and autos are finally starting to wake up from a recession-induced slumber, and the timing couldn’t be better.
read moreNo Manipulation of US Jobs Data, but the Numbers Are Noisy
In the heat of a US election season, the sharp drop in September’s unemployment rate raised some eyebrows. I think it is blatantly wrong to argue that government statisticians manipulated the data. But the jump in household jobs that triggered the drop in the unemployment rate was indeed extraordinary and requires further scrutiny.
read moreDoes an Odd Economic Tidbit Reveal Surging Optimism?
The Philadelphia Fed Index, a leading measure of US economic activity, beat analysts’ expectations. But what caught our eye—and many others’ as well—was a detail within the survey: the future index jumped more sharply than it has since February 1991, when the first Gulf War ended unexpectedly quickly.
read moreWhat’s Behind the Risk-On/Risk-Off US Economy?
The US economic recovery is progressing in fits and starts. Short-lived “risk-on” periods, when companies and consumers invest more, seem to constantly give way to “risk-off” periods, with anxiety and fear restraining economic activity.
read moreThe Bigger Picture on US Jobs
Last month, I explained why weak US jobs numbers for March shouldn’t be taken at face value. Since then, we’ve had another month of disappointing employment data—and I have some more evidence to suggest that the underlying trends are better than you might think.
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