US Economy Rebounds—with More Upside Likely

This week’s US gross domestic product (GDP) data paints a bright picture for the second quarter and a less gloomy first-quarter decline than first published. As impressive as the rebound looks on the surface, we think it’s still understated.

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US Productivity Puzzle Could Lead to Upside Surprise

A first-quarter productivity slump fueled concerns about the US economy, but second-quarter labor and company earnings data indicate better productivity and underlying growth. In short, the data point to a US economic cycle that’s broader and stronger than it appears on the surface.

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Yellen’s Inheritance: Monetary Policy in Flux

Joseph G. Carson (pictured) and Darren Williams Evolving economic challenges are transforming central banking around the world. The new monetary-policy doctrine is likely to put greater emphasis on asset-price developments. But, without a true monetary anchor, central banks could still risk a repeat of the recent boom/bust cycle.

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Patterns of US Economic Recovery Suggest Faster Growth Ahead

Recoveries from past financially driven recessions have tended to be slow, and so far the current US recovery is following that pattern. But abundant liquidity and fading headwinds suggest to us that growth is likely to accelerate.

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An Odd Decoupling in the
US Private Service Sector

First-quarter US economic growth data were revised downward today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), based on new information suggesting a slower pace of consumer spending on services. The change draws attention to an anomaly between strong private service sector job growth and weak private service sector output.

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Rising Asset Prices Sharpen US Policy Challenge

As the housing market wakes up and the stock market rallies, strong gains in asset prices are improving US household wealth and helping to reduce the federal deficit. This is a great boost for confidence, but it also sharpens the challenge facing US fiscal and monetary authorities.

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US Manufacturing Restores Competitive Vigor

The US manufacturing sector has repeatedly figured out how to reinvent itself when faced with competitive threats. In recent years, American companies have become much leaner, regaining an edge in global markets that should lead to a bigger role in economic growth.

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Fed Must Tune in to Changing US Economy

With each passing month, more questions are being asked about the sluggish US economic recovery. Why has growth been subdued since the recession ended in mid-2009? What’s changed in the economy? How long can loose monetary policies persist before promoting more inflation or creating a new bubble?

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Who’s Afraid of the Fiscal Cliff?

Warnings about the fiscal cliff have saturated the US public debate. But consumers are still spending, even though they face huge potential tax hikes, while companies are being very cautious—even though they have relatively little to lose.

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There’s New Hope for US Recovery as Early Cyclical Sectors Rebound

Something is changing in the US economic recovery. Housing and autos are finally starting to wake up from a recession-induced slumber, and the timing couldn’t be better.

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