Will Two Key Sectors Survive China’s “Long” Landing?

By Hayden Briscoe (pictured), Shamaila Khan and Jenny Zeng Based on insights from our team’s recent trip to China, we noted that the country is likely headed for a long economic landing. What does that mean for its infrastructure and commodity sectors?

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China’s Economy Gliding into “Long” Landing

By Hayden Briscoe (pictured), Shamaila Khan and Jenny Zeng China’s economy isn’t headed for a hard or soft landing—instead, it’s more likely to be a long landing. That’s our perspective, based on our team’s recent visit to China to get an up-close look at the economic landscape.

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History and Policy Point to Renminbi Rally

Many investors are worried about the future path of the Chinese currency after its sharp depreciation earlier this year. Based on fundamentals and the expectation that China will stick to its foreign-exchange policy, we think the currency has reached a fork in the road and is likely to rally.

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China’s Property Market: The Risks for Banks

By Hayden Briscoe (pictured) and Hua Cheng of AllianceBernstein (NYSE:AB) Despite worries about a collapse in China’s property market, we think the financial system will navigate the coming credit cycle if banks can buy time to resolve loan problems—and receive government support if needed.

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China’s Property Market: Policy Is the Real Risk

By Hayden Briscoe (pictured) and Jenny Zeng of AllianceBernstein (NYSE:AB) Concerns about a possible collapse in China’s property market continue to grow. However, our research suggests that fundamentals are more robust than many think. The biggest danger lies in the potential for policy mistakes.

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Could Reforms Lead to Asia Rerating?

Asia’s three biggest economies—China, India and Japan—are carrying out reform programs. Taken individually, these may do little to excite investors’ imaginations, but taken together, they become much more interesting.

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RMB Hits a Speed Bump—for Now

The notion that China’s currency, the renminbi (RMB), is on a long-term path of appreciation appears in question after its sharp decline since February. We think that the setback is only temporary—and that the currency will resume its climb in a few months.

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Asian Currencies to Stay Calm at Center of EM Storm

Emerging markets have fallen from favor, but does that mean investors should avoid them entirely? We don’t think so.

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China Comes Closer to Convergence

An announcement in late July by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) may prove to be a milestone we look back on as the trigger for the next step in the evolution of the offshore renminbi bond market. Effectively, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has underwritten liquidity in the offshore renminbi.

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China’s Uncertainties Won’t Stop Renminbi’s Rise

Recent data releases and the transition to new political leadership have created some uncertainty about China’s short-term economic outlook. While positive growth surprises are unlikely in 2013, we still think nothing can stop the long-term appreciation of China’s currency, the renminbi (RMB).

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