Beware the Dangerous Stretch for Yield

The US Federal Reserve talked in early summer about tapering its quantitative easing plan and raising interest rates—in part to stop investors from chasing yield into the arms of riskier loans. In the high-yield market, however, the conversation had exactly the opposite effect.

read more

Is Asian Turbulence a Win for China?

While this week’s sell-off in Asian currency and bond markets does not, as yet, amount to a crisis in our view, it is obviously cause for concern. At this stage, we think two outcomes are likely: one is that central banks and supranational funding agencies will work together to avert a full-blown crisis; the other [...]

read more

How Much Will Fed Tightening Hurt?

Seth J. Masters (pictured) and Ding Liu A lot of people worry about what will happen when the Federal Reserve lets interest rates rise. Our research suggests that’s not the big risk. 

read more

Sugar: A Sweet Spot for Emerging Market Investors

Sugar consumption has often been seen as a mark of affluence. But for emerging market investors, knowing how sugar is consumed can also be a guide to the successful investments of the future. We argue that only on-the-ground grassroots research can provide the knowledge needed to find these investment sweet spots.

read more

What’s the Point of Investing in Dreams?

Is innovation dead or are we on the cusp of new technological revolutions? Without resolving this epic debate, we believe that market conditions today are conducive to investing in companies with disruptive potential, but it takes a sober approach to find big dreams that can deliver big returns.

read more

The Case for the 20,000 Dow, One Year Later

In July 2012, we argued that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would rise to 20,000 within a decade. At the time, the 20,000 Dow looked impossibly far off. With the market up over 20% since then, our forecast now seems less ambitious. What has changed over the past year? And what should we expect looking [...]

read more

When Rising Rates Hurt Stocks, How Bad Did It Get?

By Chris Marx (pictured) and Alison Martier A reader of our recent blog post about stocks in rising-rate environments asked us for more details on the magnitude and timing of any stock-market sell-offs during those periods. They were uncommon but ugly, so we thought our answer warranted another post.

read more

To Manage Rising Rates, Consider Benching Your Benchmark

Doug Peebles (pictured) and Michael Mon As we enter a period of rising rates, many bond investors are growing more aware of the risks of benchmark-oriented bond portfolios. It may be time to sit the benchmark down and consider more flexible, unconstrained approaches to fixed income.

read more

How to Invest in Emerging Markets 3.0

It’s been 25 years since the emerging-market equities index was created, and much has changed. Today, we believe that emerging markets are on the cusp of a third phase that might compel investors to shift away from benchmarks and focus on absolute risk.

read more

This Rate Cycle Is Different, but Stocks Should Still Do Well

By Chris Marx (pictured) and Alison Martier Stocks have generally performed very well in rising-rate environments. But the current rate cycle is unlike any other of the past 40 years, keeping investors on edge. A lot will depend on how inflation behaves.

read more

Archives by Month:

Archives by Subject: